Ukraine has claimed that its long-range strikes have put more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity out of action, potentially affecting Moscow’s ability to produce fuel and maintain supplies for its military. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said on Sunday that recent attacks on oil refineries and related facilities had disabled 51% of Russia’s refining capacity. The claim could not be independently verified, and Russian authorities have not publicly released detailed figures on the extent of damage to the country’s oil infrastructure.

According to Ukraine’s assessment, recent strikes targeted major refining facilities in and around Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran, among other locations. Ukrainian officials said intelligence services, General Staff analysts and Defence Ministry experts had assessed the cumulative impact of the attacks. Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara described the reported damage as a significant blow to Russia’s economy and its ability to supply military forces involved in the war in Ukraine.

The latest assessment represents an increase from an earlier Ukrainian estimate. On September 21, Ukraine’s General Staff had said Russian refining capacity had fallen by about 45% following months of strikes. Kyiv has increasingly relied on long-range drones and other strike capabilities to target energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, arguing that oil facilities contribute to Russia’s ability to finance and sustain its military operations. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said it had tripled the production and procurement of long-range strike drones in 2026.

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The attacks have also contributed to pressure on Russia’s domestic fuel market. Ukrainian strikes on refineries earlier this year were linked to disruptions that led Russian authorities to impose restrictions on gasoline sales in some areas. The repeated attacks have become part of a broader Ukrainian campaign against Russia’s energy infrastructure, with Kyiv seeking to reduce the country’s ability to convert crude oil into refined products used domestically and by its armed forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged last week that Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries had caused economic damage, saying Russia had lost roughly 1% of its gross domestic product as a result of the strikes. Putin said Ukraine had openly stated that its objective was to damage the Russian economy and added that the campaign had achieved its goal “partially.” Russian officials, however, have not provided a comprehensive public assessment of refinery outages corresponding to Ukraine’s 51% figure.

The latest claims come as Russia and Ukraine have intensified their long-range aerial attacks, with limited movement along the roughly 1,200-kilometre front line. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that Kyiv intends to continue targeting Russian oil refineries, while Moscow has threatened to intensify strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in response. Russia has also reported large-scale drone interceptions over its territory, although claims from both sides about battlefield and infrastructure damage are frequently difficult to verify independently.

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