President Donald Trump’s 50-day ultimatum for Russia to secure a peace deal with Ukraine or face harsh sanctions on its energy exports has spurred Moscow to escalate its summer offensive. Yet, Ukraine’s robust defense and advanced drone tactics are likely to block significant Russian territorial advances, according to analysts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin demands Ukraine surrender four regions annexed in 2022—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—while abandoning NATO aspirations and capping its military. Kyiv and its Western allies have rejected these demands. Despite Russia capturing 1,415 square kilometers in eastern Ukraine since April, Ukrainian forces hold strong, especially around Donetsk’s critical strongholds of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.

Russia’s approach relies on slow, costly advances and relentless drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities to wear down Kyiv’s forces. Ukrainian commanders note that drones, widely used by both sides, disrupt rapid Russian progress by precisely targeting troops and equipment. On July 9, a record 728 drones and missiles struck Ukraine, highlighting Moscow’s intense aerial campaign.

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Trump’s initiative to sell Patriot systems and other weapons to NATO allies for Ukraine’s use aims to strengthen Kyiv’s defenses. Analysts, including Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute, stress that Europe can meet most of Ukraine’s needs if key US weapons, like Patriots, are supplied. With Ukraine facing ammunition shortages and mounting Russian pressure, these deliveries are crucial to counter Moscow’s “thousand cuts” strategy.

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