Australia, England, and South Africa have secured their places in the semi-finals of the ICC Women's Cricket World Cup 2025, leaving one spot open for the final four. India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, all on four points, are locked in a tight race with two matches remaining in the group stage. The pivotal clash between India and New Zealand on Thursday in Colombo will shape outcomes, as each team eyes the last berth.
Net run rates (NRR) currently favour India (0.526), followed by New Zealand (-0.245) and Sri Lanka (-1.035). Tiebreakers prioritise wins, then NRR, head-to-head results, and original seeding, making strategic victories crucial amid the round-robin format hosted across Sri Lanka and India.
India, under captain Harmanpreet Kaur, holds the strongest position. A win in both remaining games—against New Zealand and Bangladesh—guarantees progression, potentially finishing with seven points. Even a single victory over New Zealand suffices, even if they lose to Bangladesh, yielding six points and three wins, a unique tally no other contender can match.
This scenario leverages India's head-to-head edge, as a win over New Zealand would secure the tiebreaker. Should India lose to New Zealand but beat Bangladesh, they stay alive, relying on England to defeat New Zealand in the finale, with NRR deciding if tied on six points. Two losses, however, eliminate them outright, handing the advantage to rivals.
New Zealand faces a steeper path but remains viable. Triumphs in both outings—against India and England—would net eight points, clinching qualification outright. A win over India followed by a loss to England leaves them on six points, necessitating Bangladesh's upset over India and a superior NRR to Sri Lanka, or Pakistan's victory over Sri Lanka to sideline the Lankans.
The White Ferns' negative NRR complicates matters, but their recent form, including a gritty win over Sri Lanka, offers hope. A loss to India drops them to needing multiple favourable results, including England's win over India and Sri Lanka's defeat, while overtaking both on NRR—a tall order given their -0.245 differential.
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Sri Lanka, the tournament hosts, are in the toughest spot with the worst NRR. They must beat Pakistan in their finale and pray for chaos: India losing twice, New Zealand falling to England, and Sri Lanka surpassing both on NRR. This improbable chain requires perfect alignment, as even six points might not suffice against India's potential three wins or New Zealand's head-to-head.
Sri Lanka's campaign, marred by upsets like their loss to Bangladesh, hinges on a morale-boosting win, but their -1.035 NRR leaves little margin for error. The semi-finals, set for November 2 in Colombo and Ahmedabad, promise high stakes, with the top four advancing to knockout glory.
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