Rain has dramatically reshaped the men’s cricket competition at the 2026 Asian Games in Japan, with all four quarterfinals affected and India and Pakistan now potentially on course to meet in the gold-medal match. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh advanced to the semifinals on Tuesday after their respective quarterfinals against Nepal and Malaysia were abandoned without a ball being bowled. Sri Lanka progressed on the basis of its superior T20I ranking, while Bangladesh advanced under the same tournament rule. India had already reached the last four after its quarterfinal against Afghanistan was washed out, while Pakistan progressed after its match against Hong Kong, China, was also abandoned.

The semifinal line-up is therefore India against Sri Lanka and Pakistan against Bangladesh. Both matches are scheduled for Thursday, October 1, at Korogi Sports Park in Nisshin. The repeated washouts have meant that several teams have been eliminated without playing their knockout matches, with the higher-ranked side progressing whenever a quarterfinal could not be played. The unusual sequence began on Monday, when persistent rain prevented Pakistan from taking on Hong Kong and India from facing Afghanistan. The same weather problems continued on Tuesday, denying Nepal and Malaysia an opportunity to compete for semifinal places.

The weather could again play a major role in deciding whether the tournament produces the much-anticipated India-Pakistan final. If either semifinal is abandoned without a result, the higher-ranked team in that contest would advance under the competition rules. India and Pakistan are the higher-ranked sides in their respective semifinal pairings, meaning a washout in both matches could leave them facing each other in the final without either team having played a semifinal. India are the defending champions in men’s cricket at the Asian Games, having won gold at the 2022 Hangzhou Games, while Pakistan are also among the seeded teams in this edition.

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There is, however, another unusual possibility if rain continues into the final. The competition rules for the 2026 edition differ from those used in the previous Asian Games. In Hangzhou, India were awarded gold after the final against Afghanistan ended without a result because India were the higher-seeded side. Under the reported rules for the 2026 tournament, if the gold-medal match itself is abandoned without a result, the two finalists would share the gold medal. That means persistent rain could potentially produce a joint-gold outcome rather than a winner being determined by ranking.

Such an outcome could also create an unusual situation because India and Pakistan have faced heightened sporting and diplomatic tensions in recent years. Their cricketing encounters have been accompanied by disagreements over handshakes and trophy ceremonies, particularly after the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack and the subsequent escalation in India-Pakistan tensions. Indian teams had earlier declined to share a podium with Asian Cricket Council chief Mohsin Naqvi during Asia Cup events, with Naqvi also serving in Pakistan’s government. Those developments have added a political dimension to sporting meetings between the neighbouring countries, although the Asian Games cricket competition itself remains governed by its tournament regulations.

For now, however, India must first face Sri Lanka and Pakistan must take on Bangladesh. The Asian Games organisers are working to prepare the rain-affected venue at Nisshin ahead of Thursday’s semifinals, after persistent wet weather disrupted the knockout stage. If both matches are completed, the final will be played on October 3 and the competition will determine the gold-medal winner on the field. If rain intervenes again, the tournament’s rules could instead produce a sequence in which rankings determine semifinalists and, in the most extreme scenario, both finalists share the gold medal.

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