The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert on October 24, 2025, for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh as a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal intensifies into the cyclonic storm Montha. Formed at 0530 hrs IST under an upper air cyclonic circulation, the system is moving west-northwestwards and is expected to develop into a depression by October 25, a deep depression by October 26, and reach cyclonic storm status over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 27. This early warning highlights the IMD's vigilance in monitoring tropical weather patterns, which have become more frequent and intense due to climate variability in the Indian Ocean region.

Coastal areas across southern and eastern India face severe weather threats, including light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy downpours from October 24 to 29, escalating to very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall—potentially exceeding 21 cm in isolated spots—over Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, and Odisha by October 26-28.

Strong surface winds of 30-50 kmph are anticipated along coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Sea conditions will deteriorate rapidly, turning rough to very rough in the central Bay of Bengal from October 25 and high from the evening of October 26, posing significant risks to maritime navigation and coastal infrastructure.

The cyclone's projected path threatens widespread disruptions in the affected states, where heavy precipitation could lead to flash floods, urban waterlogging, and agricultural damage in vulnerable low-lying regions. Historical precedents, such as Cyclone Amphan in 2020, underscore the potential for economic losses in the billions, prompting state governments to activate disaster response mechanisms. While evacuation orders have not yet been detailed, authorities in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have initiated readiness drills, emphasising the need for resilient coastal defences amid rising sea levels and erratic monsoon behaviours.

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In response, the IMD has urged fishermen to avoid venturing into the southwest and adjoining central Bay of Bengal from October 25, as well as areas off the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts from October 26. Residents in red alert zones are advised to stay indoors during peak weather events, monitor local updates, and prepare emergency kits. This proactive stance by the IMD aims to minimise casualties and damage, reflecting India's evolving strategy for cyclone management in an era of increasing tropical cyclone activity.

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