Exit polls from Germany’s snap federal election on Sunday projected a decisive lead for Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), signaling a potential end to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tenure. With polling stations closed at 6 p.m., initial results broadcast by ARD and ZDF showed the CDU/CSU bloc garnering roughly 32 percent of the vote, a significant rebound from its 24.1 percent low in 2021, positioning Mr. Merz as the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), led by Alice Weidel, trailed in second with an estimated 20 percent—its strongest national showing yet—while Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) slumped to 15 percent, their worst postwar result. The Greens, part of the outgoing coalition, polled at 13 percent, with smaller parties like the Free Democrats (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW hovering near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary seats.

Mr. Merz, 69, a corporate lawyer who has steered the CDU rightward since taking over in 2022, campaigned on economic revitalization and tougher migration controls—a stance that resonated amid Germany’s two-year recession and public unease over recent migrant-linked attacks. “We need a government that acts,” he said Sunday after voting in Arnsberg, his hometown. Yet his earlier flirtation with AfD support on migration policy, a taboo-breaking move, drew protests and alienated some moderates.

With no outright majority, coalition talks loom. A CDU-SPD “grand coalition” appears likely, though Mr. Merz has vowed to exclude the AfD, calling it his “most important opponent.” As results firm up overnight, Germany braces for a new chapter—one that could shift Europe’s economic powerhouse further right.