Germany heads to the polls on Sunday (February 23) for a snap federal election, a pivotal moment that could reshape the political landscape of Europe’s largest economy. This election, set for tomorrow as of today, February 22, 2025, follows the dramatic collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s "traffic light" coalition, comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), late last year. The coalition’s disintegration, triggered by irreconcilable budget disputes and the sacking of Finance Minister Christian Lindner in November 2024, led Scholz to call a confidence vote in December, which he lost, paving the way for this early election.
The stakes are high as over 60 million eligible voters prepare to cast two ballots: one for a local constituency representative and another for a political party, determining the composition of the 630-seat Bundestag under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system. Polls close at 6 PM local time (5 PM UTC), with exit polls expected shortly after from major broadcasters such as ARD and ZDF, offering the first glimpse of the outcome before official results trickle in overnight.
Leading the race is Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old conservative heavyweight of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The CDU/CSU alliance, polling at around 32 per cent, has capitalised on widespread dissatisfaction with Scholz’s government, promising tax cuts, welfare reforms, and stricter immigration controls. Merz, a pro-business social conservative who once stepped away from politics to fly planes and helm corporate boards, has positioned himself as the antidote to Germany’s economic stagnation and security concerns, amplified by events like the Magdeburg Christmas market attack in December 2024.
Challenging Merz is Scholz, the embattled SPD chancellor, whose party languishes at 16 per cent in pre-election surveys. Despite his coalition’s collapse, Scholz is running again, banking on his steady-handed image and pledges like tying pension increases to wage growth. However, his approval ratings have plummeted, down to 31 per cent in January, amid economic woes, including two consecutive years of recession, and soaring energy costs tied to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), led by Alice Weidel, is poised for a historic showing, polling at 21 per cent. Buoyed by anti-immigrant sentiment and economic discontent, particularly in eastern Germany, the AfD could double its parliamentary seats. Yet, mainstream parties have vowed to maintain a "firewall" against it, ruling out coalitions with the controversial group, which has faced backlash over its pro-Russia stance and radical deportation proposals.
Other players include the Greens, led by Robert Habeck, polling at 13 per cent, who advocate for renewable energy and progressive migration policies but have struggled to regain momentum since the coalition’s fallout. The FDP, at 4 per cent, risks missing the 5 per cent threshold needed for parliamentary seats, while the far-left Die Linke and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) hover near the cutoff, their fates uncertain but potentially pivotal in a fragmented parliament.
Key issues dominate the campaign: Germany’s faltering economy, battered by high energy prices and competition from China; immigration, with Merz pushing for permanent border controls; and the war in Ukraine, where parties clash over arms support and relations with Russia. Voters, 70 per cent of whom fear rising living costs per recent surveys, are anxious for solutions.
As polls suggest no single party will secure a majority, coalition talks loom large. A CDU/CSU-led government seems likely, possibly with the SPD or Greens - or both - though Merz has ruled out partnering with the AfD, BSW, or Die Linke. An "Afghanistan coalition" (CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens) is one grimly speculated outcome among commentators on X, reflecting fears of another unwieldy alliance. Negotiations could stretch for weeks, testing Germany’s ability to provide stable leadership at a time of global uncertainty, with Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency casting shadows over NATO and European security.
Tomorrow’s vote, set against a backdrop of economic gloom and political upheaval, is more than a routine election, it’s a referendum on Germany’s future direction, with the world watching closely.