Vote counting for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 commenced at 8 a.m. across 243 constituencies, with early trends by 9:30 a.m. revealing the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U))—surging past the majority mark of 122 seats, leading in over 148, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), spearheaded by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), trailed in 88. Initial postal ballot tallies at 9:09 a.m. showed a tighter neck-and-neck race, with RJD ahead in 56 seats, BJP in 55, JD(U) in 45, and Congress in just 7, but as electronic voting machine (EVM) counts progressed, the NDA's momentum solidified, buoyed by robust performances from smaller allies like Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)) and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)). This high-stakes two-phase poll, held on November 6 and 11 with a record 67.13% turnout—the highest since 1951—marks a litmus test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's leadership amid health speculations and the MGB's push for change under Tejashwi Yadav. Security remains tight at 46 counting centres, with the Election Commission of India (ECI) enforcing a ban on victory processions until November 16 to curb potential unrest.

The NDA's early dominance echoes pre-poll exit surveys from Axis My India and Today's Chanakya, which projected 121-141 and 147 seats, respectively, for the alliance, against 90-118 for the MGB, though one outlier from Journo Mirror hinted at an opposition upset. By 10 a.m., NDA leads had climbed to 160 seats, with JD(U) emerging as the single-largest party at 76-81, BJP at 69-81, LJP(RV) at 9, and HAM(S) at 2, while MGB's RJD led in 49-59, Congress in a dismal 9-16, and CPI(ML) in 6. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) flopped with leads in just 3 seats, validating predictions of its limited impact despite aggressive campaigning. Key battles in Seemanchal—Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria, and Katihar—saw NDA gains among Muslim voters (78% for MGB per Axis), while Bhojpur's traditional RJD stronghold witnessed unexpected NDA advances in 17 of 49 seats. Tejashwi Yadav comfortably led in Raghopur, but his estranged brother Tej Pratap Yadav's Janshakti Janata Dal (JJD) trailed in Mahua against RJD's Mukesh Kumar Raushan, highlighting intra-family and alliance fractures.

Congress's underwhelming showing—mirroring its 19/70 seats in 2020 despite RJD's 75/144—has once again positioned it as the MGB's "weak link", with leaders like Imran Masood and Pappu Yadav dismissing trends as premature while insisting on an opposition victory. In contrast, JD(U)'s surge—up from 43 seats in 2020—has quelled doubts over Nitish Kumar's health and viability, with BJP's Vijay Kumar Sinha trailing in Lakhisarai but allies like Anant Singh leading in Mokama. JD(U) working president Sanjay Jha hailed the "big margin" as validation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaigning and Nitish's determination, while RJD's Mrityunjay Tiwari predicted a turnaround, citing public mandate against "jungle raj". Columnist Chetan Bhagat attributed NDA's edge to women, youth, and migrant voters rejecting Tejashwi's promises, per NDTV analysis.

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As midday approaches, the NDA's projected two-thirds majority—potentially 146-167 seats per exit polls—signals Nitish Kumar's tenth term as chief minister, though BJP may push for its own leader if it outperforms JD(U). The MGB's 41% vote share versus the NDA's 43% underscores caste consolidations: 90% Yadavs and strong Muslim backing for the opposition, but upper-caste and EBC shifts favouring the incumbents. With full results expected by evening, this verdict not only shapes Bihar's governance—focusing on jobs, development, and alliances—but also ripples nationally, bolstering BJP's INDIA bloc strategy ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

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