The early trends in the Tamil Nadu Assembly election 2026 have thrown up a major political surprise, with Chief Minister M. K. Stalin trailing in his stronghold, Kolathur. He is currently behind V. S. Babu of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) by over 1,200 votes in the initial rounds of counting, signalling a potentially dramatic shift in the state’s political landscape.

Kolathur has been a safe seat for Stalin since 2011, and in the 2021 elections, he had won by a massive margin of over 70,000 votes. Therefore, his trailing position has come as a major shock to political observers and party supporters. The constituency has long been considered a stronghold of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, making this development even more significant.

The rise of TVK, led by actor-turned-politician Vijay, appears to be a key factor behind this shift. Contesting its first assembly election, TVK is showing strong performance across the state, leading in a significant number of seats. V. S. Babu, a senior leader in the party, emerging ahead of a veteran like Stalin has led to speculation about him being a “giant killer".

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At the state level, the trends suggest a three-cornered contest, with TVK leading in around 85 seats, followed by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and DMK trailing behind. This indicates a major disruption in Tamil Nadu’s traditional two-party dominance, with TVK positioning itself as a powerful new force.

In conclusion, while these are early trends and the final outcome may still change, the developments in Kolathur highlight the shifting political dynamics in Tamil Nadu. If V. S. Babu manages to maintain his lead and defeat M. K. Stalin, it would mark one of the most significant upsets in the state’s electoral history and signal a new phase in its politics.

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