The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted above-normal rainfall for September, projecting monthly precipitation to exceed 109% of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. This follows a monsoon season marked by significant rainfall and weather-related disasters across India.
The IMD’s Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, highlighted that while most regions will experience normal to above-normal rainfall, parts of northeast and east India, extreme south peninsular India, and pockets of northwest India may see below-normal precipitation.
The forecast raises concerns about potential flash floods and landslides, particularly in Uttarakhand, where heavy rainfall could swell rivers, impacting downstream cities and towns. Mohapatra also flagged risks in south Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan, and the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi River in Chhattisgarh. Since 1980, September rainfall has shown a slight upward trend, with exceptions in specific years, underscoring the increasing intensity of monsoon patterns.
India’s monsoon season (June 1 to August 31, 2025) recorded 743.1 mm of rainfall, 6% above the long-period average of 700.7 mm. Northwest India saw a 27% surplus, receiving 614.2 mm against a normal of 484.9 mm, with August alone marking the highest rainfall for the month since 2001. South Peninsular India recorded a 9.3% surplus, with 607.7 mm against a normal of 556.2 mm, driven by active monsoon conditions and frequent western disturbances.
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The heavy rainfall has triggered severe weather events. Punjab faced its worst flooding in decades, with swollen rivers and breached canals inundating farmland and displacing thousands. In Himalayan states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir, cloudbursts and flash floods caused landslides and significant damage.
Notably, active western disturbances between July 28 and August 14 led to heavy rainfall, culminating in a flash flood and landslide in Uttarkashi on August 5 and major riverine floods in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. From August 21 to 27, northwest India and the western Himalayas experienced “extremely and exceptionally heavy rainfall,” with landslides in Katra and severe flooding in Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
The IMD attributes these events to slow-moving western disturbances, interactions with monsoonal low-pressure systems, strong southerly winds drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and the formation of low-pressure systems over the north Bay of Bengal.
Temperature forecasts indicate normal to below-normal maximum temperatures in west-central, northwest, and south India, but above-normal temperatures in east-central, east, northeast, and parts of northwest India and the western coast.
As India prepares for a wetter September, the IMD’s warnings underscore the need for vigilance to mitigate the risks of flooding and landslides in vulnerable regions.
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