India is bracing for a potentially harsher summer and weaker monsoon as El Niño conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising concerns over hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall across large parts of Asia, according to weather agencies and climate monitoring bodies.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that it will issue a detailed statement soon based on model assessments regarding the onset and implications of El Niño conditions. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the agency is closely evaluating evolving oceanic and atmospheric patterns before making further projections.

The Japan Meteorological Agency on Wednesday confirmed that conditions characteristic of El Niño have already emerged over the equatorial Pacific, signalling that an El Niño event is currently underway. The phenomenon is closely monitored worldwide due to its significant impact on global weather patterns, particularly in tropical regions.

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In India, El Niño events are typically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall and higher-than-normal summer temperatures. The IMD had earlier downgraded its monsoon forecast on May 29, stating that rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is likely to be below normal at around 90% of the long-period average, with a model error margin of ±4%. Its earlier April forecast had projected 92% of the LPA.

The southwest monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture and economy, as nearly half of the country’s net-sown agricultural area depends on rainfall due to limited irrigation infrastructure. The seasonal rains also replenish 91 major reservoirs that support drinking water supply, irrigation, industry, and electricity generation.

Adding to concerns, scientists have warned that El Niño conditions could further suppress rainfall at a time when farmers are already facing potential disruptions in fertiliser supplies due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has also cautioned that El Niño represents an urgent climate warning, stating that it is arriving with a high degree of certainty in the coming months.

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