The opposition INDIA bloc's bold decision to name Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate for Bihar has intensified pressure on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has yet to officially confirm incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as its pick. The move, coupled with the announcement of Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani as the deputy CM face, has sparked speculation about the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) strategy, especially after Union Home Minister Amit Shah's reluctance to endorse Nitish explicitly.

Shah's recent statements have fueled debate, as he emphasized that the NDA's elected MLAs will decide the chief minister post-election, rather than naming Nitish outright. "Who am I to make anyone chief minister? After the elections, all MLAs will sit together and pick their leader," Shah said in an India Today interview. This ambiguity, combined with the NDA's allocation of 29 seats to Nitish's rival, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), has raised questions about whether the BJP is eyeing an upper-caste leader for the CM post, similar to its move in Maharashtra with Devendra Fadnavis.

Tejashwi seized the opportunity to criticize the NDA, alleging "injustice" to Nitish. "Amit Shah has confirmed multiple times that the legislature party will decide the CM. The NDA will not make Nitish Kumar the chief minister," he said, flanked by Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, who announced Tejashwi's candidacy. The INDIA bloc's focus on empowering Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), who form 36% of Bihar's vote share, through Sahani's nomination, contrasts with the NDA's allocation of only 15% of tickets to EBCs, further highlighting strategic differences.

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The BJP's decision to contest 101 seats alongside Nitish's Janata Dal (United) (JD(U))—an equal split for the first time—adds complexity to the alliance dynamics. Shah acknowledged Nitish's seniority, noting that in 2020, despite the BJP winning 74 seats to JD(U)'s 43, Prime Minister Narendra Modi supported Nitish for CM. However, the lack of a formal announcement and the absence of joint press conferences on seat-sharing have deepened uncertainty.

Chirag Paswan's role adds another layer of intrigue. His LJP(RV)'s 2020 strategy of fielding candidates against JD(U) weakened Nitish's tally, and the current allocation of 29 seats to LJP(RV) has caused friction with smaller NDA allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). Paswan defended Shah, stating, "The home minister spoke about the normal procedure. We are fighting under Nitish Kumar's leadership." Yet, his past actions and current prominence keep speculation alive about a potential BJP strategy to sideline Nitish.

The BJP's Maharashtra playbook, where it replaced Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde with Fadnavis, looms large. However, Nitish’s JD(U) remains crucial for the BJP’s central government, which relies on allies like JD(U) and TDP to maintain its 240-seat Lok Sabha majority. Shah has emphasized the NDA’s commitment to alliance principles, but the lack of clarity on Nitish’s role continues to dominate Bihar’s political narrative as elections approach.

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