A tense White House meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky exposed a troubling shift in U.S. policy toward the Russia-Ukraine war. Initially, Trump had championed Ukraine’s potential to reclaim territories lost since Russia’s 2014 Crimea annexation, even discussing Tomahawk missile deliveries during phone calls with Zelensky on October 11 and 12. However, a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 16 led Trump to abruptly withdraw missile support, urging a ceasefire that would cede up to 20% of Ukraine’s territory—a proposal Kyiv and its European allies vehemently reject. This reversal, reported by CNN and The New York Times, underscores a recurring pattern of Trump oscillating from anti-Russia rhetoric to Kremlin-aligned concessions.

The Kremlin’s strategic maneuvering was evident in Putin’s timely outreach, blending flattery and trade promises to sway Trump, as noted by European diplomats. Trump’s post-meeting Truth Social post advocated for Russia and Ukraine to “accept the current status quo,” aligning with Moscow’s aim to prolong its Donbas offensive by stalling U.S. support. The proposed “double summit” in Budapest—where Trump would meet Putin and Zelensky separately—further complicates matters, forcing NATO and EU nations to navigate Putin’s transit through their airspace or risk being framed as peace obstructors. This tactic, per Politico, amplifies Russia’s efforts to fracture transatlantic unity while buying time for territorial gains.

The implications for Ukraine are dire, with no immediate ceasefire in sight and daily Russian attacks devastating infrastructure, foreshadowing a brutal winter for civilians. Trump’s vision of two deals—one for a peace settlement and another to reset U.S.-Russia ties—sidelines Zelensky, who faces pressure to accept terms dictated by Washington and Moscow. The absence of tougher sanctions on Russia and its allies, including India and China, further weakens Kyiv’s position. Despite earlier hopes of a November ceasefire, the Budapest talks, as reported by The Washington Post, hinge on U.S.-Russia negotiations, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to a forced compromise.

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Yet, Ukraine’s resilience offers hope amid the diplomatic setback. Mobilization efforts are intensifying, domestic arms production is scaling up, and over half of NATO’s members continue supplying U.S.-made weapons, per Reuters. Three key insights emerge: Putin’s swift reaction to the Tomahawk threat reveals Russia’s vulnerabilities; Trump’s unreliability undermines transatlantic trust, risking a deal at Ukraine’s expense; and Ukraine’s ongoing resistance, bolstered by European support, keeps victory or a fair settlement within reach. Until Europe escalates its role, the White House remains pivotal, as noted by Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko in their analysis for The Conversation.

This article is a derivative work from the original authored by Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham, and Tetyana Malyarenko, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy. The original article was Republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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