South Sudan is on track to experience universal poverty by 2025, propelled by a toxic mix of declining oil production and external shocks, according to the World Bank’s “South Sudan Economic Monitor” report released on Thursday. The dire projection underscores a deepening crisis in the world’s youngest nation, where economic decline has relentlessly eroded livelihoods.

The report reveals that 76% of South Sudanese lived below the national poverty line in 2022—a 7% rise since 2015. Charles Undeland, World Bank Group Country Manager for South Sudan, speaking at the report’s launch in Juba, attributed this spiral to years of setbacks: disrupted oil flows due to Sudan’s ongoing war, the lingering effects of COVID-19, and ripple effects from Ukraine’s conflict. “Inflation hit 139% in August 2024, slashing purchasing power,” Undeland noted, with floods further battering the economy. Extreme deprivation—households unable to afford basic food—surged from 70% in 2022 to 92% in 2024.

Undeland emphasized that reversing this trajectory depends on fully implementing the 2018 peace agreement to restore stability. Yet, the nation’s oil-dependent economy remains vulnerable. Finance Minister Marial Dongrin Ater acknowledged this fragility, highlighting government efforts post-peace deal to diversify. “We’re broadening our base—boosting agriculture, trade, and infrastructure investment per the 2024/2025 budget,” Ater said, signaling reforms to bolster macroeconomic resilience.

South Sudan’s plight reflects a confluence of internal strife and global pressures, with the World Bank sounding an urgent alarm. Without peace and economic diversification, the specter of universal poverty looms large, threatening to engulf every household in this beleaguered nation by next year.