Three years after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel, questions remain over whether Israeli authorities received advance warnings about a possible major attack from Gaza. The assault, which began on October 7, became the deadliest day for Israelis in the country’s history and triggered a prolonged conflict. On the third anniversary of the attack, fresh attention has turned to claims that Egypt warned Israel about the possibility of a serious violent incident several days before the assault.

Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Egypt had warned Israeli officials about the possibility of an attack three days before Hamas launched the cross-border assault. McCaul said the information was discussed during a closed-door intelligence briefing for US lawmakers. He did not disclose further details, citing the classified nature of the information, but said a warning had been given and that the issue involved questions over the level at which the warning was communicated.

The claim is not new. In 2023, an Egyptian intelligence official told the Associated Press that Cairo had repeatedly warned Israeli officials that “something big” was being planned in Gaza. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Egypt had warned that an escalation was approaching and could be significant, but Israeli officials underestimated the warnings. According to the official, Israeli authorities were more focused on developments in the West Bank at the time.

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Egypt has maintained a role as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas and controls crossings on its border with Gaza, making its intelligence and diplomatic contacts relevant to the question of whether warnings were communicated before the attack. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected claims that Israel received a specific warning about the October 7 assault. Netanyahu described suggestions that Israel had been given advance notice as “totally fake news”, leaving the precise nature and significance of any prior information disputed.

The failure to prevent the attack has been the subject of intense scrutiny of Israel’s political leadership and intelligence agencies. Sir Alex Younger, who headed the UK's foreign intelligence agency from 2014 to 2020, attributed the failure in part to what he described as “institutional complacency”. Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today Podcast, Younger said Israeli officials may have believed Hamas was not seeking another major conflict and could therefore have discounted information that challenged that assumption.

Younger also suggested that heavy reliance on technology to monitor Gaza may have contributed to a false sense of security. He said, while acknowledging that he was not directly involved, that information capable of being interpreted as a warning may have existed but was not understood correctly at the time. Three years after the attack, the reported Egyptian warnings, Israel’s rejection of claims of a specific advance alert and continuing scrutiny of intelligence failures remain central to questions about how the October 7 assault was able to take Israel by surprise.

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