The trauma of Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack is dominating Israel's political debate as the country prepares for an election that could determine the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Nearly three years after the assault, the deadliest security failure in Israel's history remains central to campaign speeches, political advertisements and televised debates. Netanyahu's opponents argue that the attack exposed serious failures under his leadership, while his supporters contend that he has guided Israel through an unprecedented period of conflict and helped the country recover from the shock of the assault. The October 27 election could therefore become a defining moment for Netanyahu, who is approaching 77 and has been one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics for decades.

The October 7 attack continues to shape public opinion because of the scale of the loss and the sense of vulnerability it created across Israeli society. On that morning, Hamas-led militants launched thousands of rockets and breached Israel's border from multiple points, including through openings in the security barrier and by using boats and motorised paragliders. Around 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage, according to figures cited in the supplied report. The assault triggered a prolonged regional conflict and fundamentally changed Israel's security and political landscape. Tamar Hermann, an expert on Israeli public opinion at the Israel Democracy Institute, described October 7 as a framework for the country's entire political discussion and said Israelis remain deeply affected by the trauma.

Netanyahu's political opponents have sought to make the security failures surrounding October 7 a central argument against his continued leadership. They contend that the government and security establishment failed to prevent the attack despite warnings and the country's extensive military and intelligence capabilities. The prime minister's defenders have taken a different position, arguing that Netanyahu was let down by elements of the military and security establishment and that responsibility should not rest solely with the political leadership. The competing narratives have created a sharp divide over accountability. Netanyahu remains the only senior political figure from the period immediately surrounding October 7 who is still in office, after several senior security officials stepped down or announced their departures.

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The consequences of the attack extended far beyond Israel's borders. Israel launched a major military campaign in Gaza after October 7, with local health authorities reporting more than 74,000 Palestinian deaths in the subsequent offensive. The fighting devastated large parts of the Gaza Strip and created a severe humanitarian crisis. Israel subsequently became involved in additional conflicts and military operations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, targets in Yemen, developments in Syria and confrontations with Iran. Hundreds of Israelis, including many soldiers, have also been killed during the wider period of conflict. The scale and duration of the fighting have ensured that security, military strategy, hostages and relations with neighbouring countries remain major issues for Israeli voters.

The war has also affected Israel's international position. The country has faced growing diplomatic criticism over its military operations in Gaza, while some governments and international figures have accused Israel of genocide, a charge the Israeli government strongly rejects. Netanyahu is also wanted by the International Criminal Court, adding another layer to the international pressure surrounding his government. Supporters of the prime minister argue that these developments must be understood in the context of Israel's security needs and the threat posed by Hamas and other armed groups. Opponents, meanwhile, say the diplomatic consequences and prolonged conflict demonstrate the costs of Netanyahu's approach and strengthen the case for political change.

For Netanyahu, the October 27 election could consequently represent both a major political risk and an opportunity for a dramatic comeback. A defeat would potentially bring an end to a political career spanning several decades and leave voters deciding whether the failures associated with October 7 outweigh the government's subsequent actions during the wars that followed. A victory, by contrast, would allow Netanyahu to argue that voters had endorsed his leadership through one of the most turbulent periods in Israel's modern history. The election is therefore being shaped not simply by conventional political divisions but by competing interpretations of the country's most traumatic recent event. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, October 7 remains the central reference point through which Netanyahu's record, Israel's security and the country's future are being debated.

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