As the war in Ukraine rages on with no ceasefire in sight, European leaders convened in Paris on Thursday, September 4, 2025, to tackle the daunting challenge of securing postwar guarantees for Ukraine, amid uncertainty over U.S. involvement. The meeting, co-led by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, underscores the precarious position of the “coalition of the willing,” a group of approximately 30 nations committed to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

The coalition has been discussing military aid and potential security guarantees to deter future Russian attacks, but the absence of concrete U.S. backing has left European nations in a bind. U.S. President Donald Trump, despite earlier hints of involvement, has shifted away from advocating a ceasefire and has not imposed stringent economic measures on Moscow. His August 2025 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska failed to yield progress toward peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, further complicating the coalition’s efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s dismissal of Zelenskyy’s legitimacy has added to the deadlock, raising doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire.

Experts warn that any European-led “reassurance force” to protect Ukraine post-ceasefire would require significant U.S. support, particularly in intelligence and airpower. Ed Arnold, a European security expert at the Royal United Services Institute, described detailed operational planning as “impossible” without a clear mission or assured U.S. commitment. Francois Heisbourg, a special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, noted that deploying troops without a ceasefire is too risky, and even a post-ceasefire force could face high risks from Russian missile or drone strikes.

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The proposed force could involve 10,000 to 30,000 troops, with the UK potentially contributing a brigade of 5,000 soldiers, accounting for rotations. However, such a deployment could strain the UK’s military capacity, potentially diverting resources from NATO allies like Estonia. European officials suggest troops would focus on training Ukrainian forces and remain away from frontlines, but the lack of a clear mission risks undermining credibility, according to Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army commander in Europe.

The reliability of U.S. support remains a critical concern, with Arnold pointing to Trump’s history of withdrawing from international agreements, such as the Paris climate accord and Iran nuclear deal, as evidence of unpredictability. With NATO membership for Ukraine off the table and rising populist sentiments in Europe potentially weakening commitment, leaders face tough choices. Heisbourg and Arnold suggest that arming Ukraine with substantial weaponry and ammunition may be the most viable option to bolster its defenses.

As the Paris meeting unfolds, European nations are left navigating a complex landscape, balancing the need for robust security guarantees with the uncertainty of U.S. engagement and Russia’s intransigence. The coalition’s efforts reflect a determination to support Ukraine, but the path to a lasting peace remains fraught with challenges, leaving Europe to confront a pivotal moment in its security strategy.

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