IPL 2025 is now a near-closed chapter for the Chennai Super Kings.
Chennai Super Kings suffered a crushing blow to their playoff aspirations following a loss to Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) today at the MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai.
With both teams languishing at the bottom of the points table, this match was billed as a do-or-die clash, and CSK’s defeat has left their campaign on life support. Below, we analyze CSK’s slim chances of advancing to the playoffs and the key factors behind their dismal performance this season.
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CSK’s Playoff Chances: A Near-Impossible Task
CSK entered the SRH match with just 4 points from 8 games, sitting at the bottom of the IPL 2025 points table with a net run rate (NRR) of -1.392, the worst in the tournament. The loss to SRH leaves them with 5 remaining matches, and their playoff hopes now hinge on a series of unlikely scenarios:
- Win All Remaining Matches: CSK must win all 5 of their remaining fixtures (against PBKS, RCB, KKR, RR, and GT) to reach 14 points. Historically, 14 points has been a risky threshold for playoff qualification, with only a 37.5% success rate for teams achieving 7 wins in a 14-match season. To secure a spot, CSK would need to win by significant margins to boost their NRR, which is currently a major liability.
- Dependence on Other Results: Even with 14 points, CSK’s qualification depends on other teams faltering. The top five teams already have 10 points or more, and teams like SRH, with one fewer game played, have a better chance of reaching 16 points. CSK would need at least three teams to finish with 14 points or fewer, a tall order given the competitive field.
- NRR Challenge: CSK’s NRR of -1.392 is a significant hurdle. Even if they win all remaining games, they must do so convincingly to overtake teams like SRH (-1.217) or others with better NRRs. For context, RCB qualified in 2024 with 14 points due to a superior NRR, a scenario CSK would need to replicate.
- Mathematical Possibility: Fans were seen cooking up optimistic projections to even reach a 1% likelihood of their favourite team move forward. Some estimate CSK’s chances at 1%, with a 99% likelihood of elimination unless they win all games and other results align perfectly. Others cling to “faith in Thala” (MS Dhoni), but acknowledge the improbability of a turnaround.
Verdict: CSK’s playoff chances are virtually nonexistent, with a loss to SRH likely sealing their fate. They would need to win all remaining matches by large margins and rely on multiple top teams collapsing, a scenario described as “99% unlikely” by fans.
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