Rumour mills swirl. Factions simmer. As Tamil Nadu is gearing up for the 2026 Assembly elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) finds itself at a crossroads. 

At the heart of this political vortex is K.A. Sengottaiyan, veteran leader, former minister, and 9-times MLA of the party. Whispers of his potential rise within the party have been growing louder by the day. While some party members say it is not inconceivable, many senior members say it is completely out of the question. B.V. Ramana, Thiruvallur district secretary and former minister, said, "the likelihood appears to be quite remote at this stage," adding, "he (Sengottaiyan) himself declined when the leadership was offered to him, why would he want it now? At least, I don't see that coming."  

But, the speculation runs rife, fuelled by public spats, and the party’s desperate need to reclaim its lost glory. But the path to power doesn't look that easy for Sengottaiyan, as it is fraught with challenges - particularly the towering presence of Edappadi K. Palaniswami  (popularly known as EPS) - the current general secretary and undisputed kingpin of the party.

The tussle stemmed from a recent event organised by a Coimbatore farmers body that facilitated EPS, which Sengottaiyan chose not to attend after conveying his displeasure over the absence of the images of the party's founder late M.G. Ramachandran and his successor J. Jayalalitha in party banners and posters that were put up there, recalls V. Barani Prasad, Area Secretary, Alandur Assembly Constituency, who has been keeping his ears to the ground. Rubbishing the claims of Sengottaiyan's maneuver to leadership, he says given EPS’s iron grip over the party, and his ability to take along everyone would leave no room for such a move. However, he says, "I am a true worker of AIADMK. Come what may, I will be with the party - be it EPS or Sengottaiyan at the helm." 

However, many, including Ramana and Prasad, admit that Sengottaiyan's dissatisfaction with the party leadership has become increasingly apparent, as his actions openly signal a rift with EPS. Even ahead of the Budget Session on March 14, he skipped the meeting of party MLAs. When another former minister Vaigai Selvan denounced him for making inner party issues public, labelling it an "uncivilised conduct", defence came to Sengottaiyan from completely unexpected quarters - EPS' nemesis T.T.V. Dinakaran. He said, there is hardly any need for Sengottaiyan to learn civility from anyone. "He reflects the true voice of AIADMK's supporters who want to protect the party's future," he said. This fuels another speculation that Dhinakaran's supporters appear to be rallying behind Sengottaiyan's growing influence in the party.

A senior political analyst, on the condition of anonymity, said he would want to consider a few key points and connect the dots.  First, the BJP is aiming to dislodge the DMK in the 2026 elections by consolidating anti-DMK votes. So, BJP's strategy appears to cobble up a mega alliance that could include the AIADMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, and potentially expelled AIADMK leaders, TTV Dhinakaran and O.Panneer Selvam - figures that EPS has staunchly opposed reintegration due to past factional conflicts. As if this is not enough, the friction between BJP's Annamalai and EPS has created tensions that may prove to be an impediment to a smooth alliance between the two parties. "Now, if you piece these factors together, it would become clear why Sengottaiyan's rise might just be inevitable." 

Yet, Sengottaiyan’s path is far from clear. The AIADMK has been a house divided since Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2016, with EPS consolidating power after a bitter factional war that sidelined O. Panneerselvam (OPS), V.K. Sasikala, and TTV Dhinakaran. EPS has since been positioning himself as the undisputed leader and the face of AIADMK’s 2026 campaign. For Sengottaiyan to emerge as a leadership contender, leave alone a CM candidate, he would need to navigate this entrenched power structure, a task that seems daunting given EPS’s dominance in the party. 

That said, Sengottaiyan isn’t out of the game yet. For now, though the veteran seems destined to play a supporting role, his aspirations simmering beneath the surface as EPS steers the ship towards 2026. In politics, no one knows who will come out on top until the final card is played. But, like Bharani Prasad, there are millions for whom it's only the two-leaves that matter and not who's at the helm.