With Bihar's 243-seat assembly elections set for November 6 and 11, 2025, and results due on November 14, political parties are intensifying efforts to court women voters, whose support could determine the outcome in a state historically dominated by caste dynamics. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), views women as pivotal to retaining power, drawing on lessons from the 2020 polls where they proved decisive. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently urged BJP booth workers to address women as "bhaiya" rather than "sir", signalling a grassroots push to build rapport. Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari notes that women's votes could again tip the scales, especially amid recent electoral roll revisions that disproportionately affected female registrations, reducing their share from 47.8% in January to a lower proportion in the final lists.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's administration has rolled out targeted welfare measures, including the Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyami Yojana, disbursing Rs 10,000 to over 1.25 crore women for self-employment, alongside free 125 units of electricity per household and hiked social pensions from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 for 11.2 million families. These initiatives, building on 35% reservation in police jobs and 50% in local bodies, aim to solidify NDA's appeal among this cross-caste constituency.
The NDA's strategy is rooted in empirical gains from 2020, when women outnumbered men on voter lists in 119 of 243 constituencies, and the alliance clinched 72 seats (60.5%), with BJP securing 38 and JD(U) 29. In contrast, the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties—won only 42 such seats (35.3%). This edge evaporated in male-majority areas, where MGB triumphed in 68 of 124 seats (54.8%) against NDA's 53 (42.7%). Notably, in 38 constituencies where women's voters exceeded the victory margin, NDA captured 23, underscoring turnout's impact in a razor-thin overall win (125 seats to MGB's 110).
Pollster Yashwant Deshmukh highlights Nitish Kumar's "personal connect" with women, forged through decades of schemes like increased allowances for ASHA and Anganwadi workers, low-interest loans for Jeevika self-help groups, and priority in employment programmes. Even Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM benefited, winning four of five seats in female-heavy areas. Recent data shows women outvoting men in 167 constituencies in 2020, mostly in north Bihar strongholds like Madhubani and Sitamarhi, where NDA dominated.
While NDA leverages these trends, challenges loom from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of rolls, which deleted 22.7 lakh women voters (6.1% drop) versus 15.5 lakh men (3.8%), skewing the gender ratio downward in 230 constituencies and heightening risks for JD(U)-held seats. This could amplify MGB's focus on male voters, where RJD alone grabbed 46 seats in 2020.
Opposition leaders like Tejashwi Yadav are countering with yatras emphasising unemployment and migration—top concerns for women per Vote Vibe polls—while pushing for higher caste-based reservations. Yet, NDA's cash transfers, totalling Rs 10,000 crore to one crore beneficiaries by October 8, mirror successful models in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, potentially offsetting deletions if timed pre-polling. Among youth, 40% of women aged 18-29 backed NDA in 2020 versus 33% of men, per Lokniti-CSDS, hinting at a generational shift.
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Beyond traditional caste faultlines—spanning OBCs, EBCs (36%), SCs, and STs—women are forging a "caste-neutral" identity, as evidenced by NDA's replication of empowerment tactics nationwide. Psephologists predict this bloc could eclipse Muslim-Yadav consolidation, with NDA eyeing a repeat of north Bihar sweeps. As campaigns peak, the gender lens reframes Bihar's contest: where women lead in numbers and turnout, the NDA's fortunes brighten, but deletions and economic grievances test this fragile advantage. The November verdict may affirm women as the state's true electoral fulcrum, transcending old divides.
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