Exit polls conducted after the conclusion of Bihar's 2025 assembly elections on November 11, 2025, project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to emerge as the single largest party with 67-70 seats, displacing the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) from its 2020 position and solidifying BJP's dominance within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The surveys, released by multiple agencies including News18 Mega Poll and Delhi Satta Bazaar, indicate BJP's surge on the back of strong upper-caste and EBC consolidation, contesting 101 seats as in 2020 when it won 74. RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is forecasted at 63 seats—a dip from its 75 in the previous polls—despite fielding 143 candidates and banking on Yadav-Muslim vote banks. Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) trails at 62 seats on average, down from 43 in 2020 but bolstered by welfare schemes.

The NDA coalition, including BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV) with 29 seats, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM-S) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) at six each, is poised for a comfortable majority of 130-167 seats across 243 constituencies, well above the 122 mark. Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), comprising RJD, Congress (61 seats), and Left parties, is expected to secure 70-108 seats, a sharp decline from 110 in 2020. Voter turnout hit 67.14% in phase two and 65% in phase one, signalling high engagement amid campaigns on jobs, caste census, and development.

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Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, contesting all seats in its debut, is projected at 0-5 seats despite a 9-13% vote share, failing to disrupt the bipolar contest. Kishor, architect of past NDA wins, aimed to cap JD(U) below 30 but faces criticism as a vote-splitter.

These polls, while favouring NDA continuity for Nitish's ninth term, carry risks—2020 saw RJD as the largest despite NDA victory. Results on November 14 will confirm if BJP's arithmetic triumphs over anti-incumbency.

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