Ukraine’s armed forces face a critical challenge this fall as Russia intensifies its campaign to capture the Donetsk region, a former industrial hub where Moscow now controls about 70% of the territory. Ukrainian troops are entrenched in a defensive line of four cities—Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka—known as the “fortress belt,” which has held off Russian advances for years.

However, shortages of troops, supplies, and systemic mismanagement are straining Ukraine’s ability to resist Russia’s relentless pressure, raising fears that the remaining cities could fall, analysts and military officials warn.

Russia is avoiding costly urban battles like those in Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, opting instead for infiltration tactics and flank attacks to encircle the fortress belt, according to Col. Pavlo Yurchuk of the 63rd Brigade, defending Lyman in northern Donetsk. Small Russian units slip through gaps, targeting supply lines, though these moves yield only tactical gains at a high human cost.

“Of a five-man unit, usually only one survives,” Yurchuk noted, dismissing Russia’s ability to achieve strategic breakthroughs due to logistical weaknesses. Drones and glide bombs further enable Russia to weaken Ukrainian strongholds without direct assaults.

In southern Donetsk, Russian advances near Pokrovsk threaten Kostiantynivka, while in the north, Lyman’s rail links and infrastructure make it a prime target. Despite Russia’s annexation claims in 2022, Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive reclaimed parts of Donetsk, but current troop shortages and exhaustion are eroding defenses.

Taras Chmut of the Come Back Alive Foundation highlighted systemic issues, noting that brigades often field far fewer combat-ready soldiers than reported due to mismanagement, a flaw Ukraine struggles to address.

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The potential fall of the fortress belt could displace thousands and devastate Ukraine’s economy, with no guarantee Russia would halt its invasion, warned Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute. As U.S.-led peace efforts falter, Ukraine relies on technology and volunteer courage to hold the line, but without significant reforms and resources, the outlook remains grim. Russia’s slow but persistent advances signal a protracted and costly struggle ahead.

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