The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating light to moderate rainfall in parts of Rajasthan for the next four days starting Saturday, despite an overall weakening of the southwest monsoon in the state. This comes after a period of intense rainfall earlier in the season, particularly in July, which was recorded as the wettest in nearly 70 years with 285 mm of precipitation against a long-period average of 161.4 mm.
The affected divisions include Bharatpur, Kota, Udaipur, Ajmer, and Jaipur, where scattered showers are expected until Tuesday. According to IMD officials, rainfall activity is projected to decrease across the state for the coming week, although northeastern regions may see some precipitation beginning Saturday. This aligns with broader predictions of a prolonged dry spell gripping the state, as highlighted by weather experts at Skymet, who note that despite an overall surplus—West Rajasthan at 70% above normal and East Rajasthan at 73% as of August 6—the rains have been absent in recent weeks.
In the last 24 hours ending at 8:30 AM Saturday, eastern Rajasthan experienced light to moderate rainfall at several locations, with isolated heavy downpours. The highest amount was recorded in Mahua, Dausa district, at 71.0 mm. In contrast, western Rajasthan remained predominantly dry, exacerbating concerns for farmers who rely heavily on monsoon rains due to limited irrigation facilities. Cities like Jaipur have seen no significant rain in the past 4-5 days, Jaisalmer only on five days since mid-July, Barmer dry since July 22, and Jodhpur without notable precipitation for ten days.
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Looking ahead, the IMD's extended range forecast suggests light to moderate rainfall at many places in West India, including Rajasthan, over the next 5-6 days, potentially accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning. However, the first half of August is likely to remain largely dry, with only isolated light showers possible in northwest areas like Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, and Churu between August 9 and 11, and scattered weak showers in western Rajasthan from August 12 to 13.
A significant shift is anticipated between August 15 and 21, with increased rainfall activity across most parts of the state. Southern Rajasthan is expected to receive above-normal precipitation, while the remaining areas should see around normal levels. This resurgence could bring relief but also raises the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying and previously saturated regions, given the surplus accumulated earlier in the monsoon season.
As of August 1, Rajasthan had already received 403 mm of rainfall, amounting to 94% of the seasonal average of 424 mm from June 1 onward, indicating a highly active monsoon phase that has now stalled. Weather analysts warn that the monsoon trough's position near the Himalayan foothills is contributing to the current dry conditions, with no major weather systems expected to alter this pattern imminently.
Residents and authorities are urged to monitor updates closely, prepare for potential waterlogging in urban areas, and implement measures to mitigate agricultural losses during this transitional period. The IMD continues to track developments and will issue warnings as necessary to safeguard lives and property.
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