US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim of mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, a narrative he has repeated for the 50th time, according to observers. Speaking to reporters en route to Israel to support a Gaza ceasefire, Trump linked his diplomatic efforts to the use of tariffs, stating, “I settled a few of the wars just based on tariffs. As an example, with India and with Pakistan, I said, ‘If you guys want to fight a war — and you have nuclear weapons! — I’m going to put big tariffs on you both, like 100%, 150, and 200%.’ They said, ‘No, no, no, don’t do that.’ I had that thing settled in 24 hours.” India, however, has consistently denied any third-party mediation in its Operation Sindoor, launched in response to a terror attack in Kashmir.

This claim comes just days after Trump sent Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a framed photo of the two leaders with a handwritten note: “Mr Prime Minister, you are great!” The gesture, delivered by US ambassador-designate Sergio Gor on October 11, reflects Trump’s pattern of alternating between admiration for Modi and aggressive trade policies. In September, Trump labeled India and China as “primary funders” of Russia’s war in Ukraine, imposing 50% tariffs on India as a “penalty” for its oil deals with Moscow. He also introduced a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, heavily utilized by Indian tech professionals, effectively crippling the program.

Trump’s tariff threats continued during discussions on China’s opposition to additional 100% tariffs. He argued that tariffs have enriched the US and provided “diplomatic strength,” citing the alleged India-Pakistan ceasefire as evidence. Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and India, now approaching a sixth round in mid-October, face challenges. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and adviser Peter Navarro have demanded greater market access, while India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar emphasized “red lines” around India’s farm and dairy sectors.

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Despite the tensions, Modi has maintained a diplomatic approach, promoting “swadeshi” (made-in-India) goods and avoiding direct confrontation. In early October, Modi praised Trump’s Gaza peace plan during a phone call, and the leaders exchanged mutual admiration on social media. However, Trump’s frustration was evident in September when he criticized Modi’s meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping at the SCO summit, claiming, “We’ve lost India and Russia to China.”

Trump’s contradictory approach—praising Modi while imposing punitive measures—underscores the complex US-India relationship. His repeated ceasefire mediation claims, part of his Nobel Peace Prize pitch, remain unsubstantiated, while India continues to assert its sovereignty in decision-making. As trade negotiations progress, the balance between cooperation and contention will shape the future of bilateral ties.

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