India’s southwest monsoon in 2026 is projected to be below normal overall, but uneven rainfall distribution could pose an even bigger challenge for the country’s agriculture and water systems, according to G.P. Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change at private forecaster Skymet Weather Services. Sharma emphasised that while total rainfall volume matters, how that rainfall is spread across regions and months will be crucial for outcomes this year.

Skymet’s latest forecast predicts monsoon rainfall at about 94% of the long‑period average for the June–September season, indicating a below‑normal pattern likely influenced by the developing El Niño weather phenomenon. El Niño typically suppresses precipitation across South Asia, particularly in the latter half of the monsoon, and could weaken rainfall intensity and continuity as the season progresses.

Sharma noted that while the monsoon may begin on time and on a satisfactory note in June, the forecasts point to increasingly adverse conditions by July and August — the core months for rain‑fed agriculture — when many regions might experience reduced rainfall distribution. This skewed pattern raises concerns for farmers who depend on consistent rains for kharif crop sowing and growth.

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Regionally, Skymet sees eastern and northeastern India faring comparatively better, but warns that central and western parts of the country — including states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Gujarat — may face moisture stress, especially in the latter half of the season. Adequate rainfall distribution across these belts is vital for food production and groundwater recharge.

The focus on distribution rather than just overall totals reflects a broader shift in climate risk assessment, as uneven or erratic rainfall can have outsized impacts even when aggregate figures appear near normal. Local shortfalls during key agricultural periods can trigger drought‑like conditions, affecting yields, food inflation, and rural incomes.

Authorities and stakeholders are already watching other climate indicators, including ocean surface temperature patterns and Indian Ocean Dipole dynamics, which could moderate or amplify the monsoon’s performance. With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) slated to release its official forecast soon, policymakers will be looking closely at both quantitative and spatial rainfall patterns to prepare for potential impacts on water resources and food security.

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