The trust vote for actor-turned-politician Chief Minister Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is set to take place later today, with the outcome expected to be a closely watched political thriller. The fledgling two-year-old party is likely to survive the floor test, albeit with a slender majority, as internal rebellions within the opposition AIADMK add an unexpected twist to the proceedings.

The majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly is 118. TVK currently holds 107 seats after Vijay resigned from one of the two constituencies he won. The party is bolstered by five MLAs from ally Congress and outside support from eight MLAs of DMK allies — CPI, CPM, IUML, and VCK — potentially taking the tally past the threshold. However, uncertainty looms over one TVK MLA, Srinivasa Sethupathi, whose participation has been barred by the Madras High Court following a challenge by his DMK rival. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear his petition today; even if the verdict goes against him, TVK is projected to retain a razor-thin majority.

Adding intrigue to the trust vote is the surprise support extended by around 30 rebel MLAs from the AIADMK. Although these legislators remain part of the party led by E Palaniswami (EPS) and cannot formally vote in favour of the government without a party whip, they can choose to abstain. Such abstentions would effectively reduce the number of MLAs present and voting, easing the path for Vijay’s government to prove its majority on the floor.

The developments are as much a test for TVK’s stability as they are for the future of the decades-old AIADMK, founded by another actor-turned-politician, M G Ramachandran. The rebel MLAs, who met Vijay on Wednesday, are reportedly aiming to wrest control of the legislature party from Palaniswami. Gaining this position would significantly enhance their influence and potentially pave the way for the AIADMK — out of power for five years — to extend formal support to TVK and join the government.

The rebels have accused Palaniswami of attempting a tie-up with arch-rival DMK, describing it as a betrayal of the party’s core ideology, a charge both Palaniswami and the DMK have firmly denied. While today’s trust vote is widely expected to go in favour of the Vijay government, the surrounding political manoeuvres within the AIADMK are likely to dominate narratives in the coming days.