The World Bank’s chief economist has warned that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could significantly worsen global hunger, as economic disruptions ripple through food, energy, and agricultural supply chains. Indermit Gill said the crisis could sharply increase food insecurity worldwide, noting that around 300 million people already face acute hunger. That number could rise by nearly 20% in a short period as the war’s economic consequences deepen and spread across regions.

A major concern is the disruption of energy supplies, particularly through critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has driven up oil prices, which in turn has led to a surge in fertilizer costs due to their reliance on petrochemical inputs. Higher input costs for farmers are expected to reduce agricultural output, potentially tightening food supplies in the coming months.

Gill also warned that countries may respond to rising prices by restricting food exports or stockpiling supplies to protect domestic markets. Such measures, while aimed at ensuring national food security, could exacerbate global shortages and push prices even higher. He cautioned that these export bans are particularly concerning given their potential to destabilize already fragile food systems.

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The impact is expected to be most severe in low-income and conflict-affected countries, where households spend a large share of their income on food and fuel. While the immediate effects are being felt across parts of Asia, the crisis could quickly extend to Africa if the conflict persists, worsening vulnerabilities in already strained economies.

Experts note that while current food supplies remain relatively stable—having been produced before the escalation—the full impact may only become evident in the coming months. As higher costs and supply disruptions begin to affect future harvests, the risk of a broader humanitarian crisis is likely to grow if the conflict is not contained.

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