U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to assert indefinite control over Venezuela's oil exports following the recent capture of former President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. The administration seized two sanctioned oil tankers this week and announced plans to sell between 30 million and 50 million barrels from Venezuela's crude storage facilities, with proceeds to be deposited into U.S.-controlled accounts intended ultimately to benefit the Venezuelan people. Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the policy as a long-term strategy to wind down “adversarial outside influence” in the Western Hemisphere, directly challenging China's significant stake in the country's energy sector.

China's involvement in Venezuela is substantial. Two major state-owned enterprises, China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) and Sinopec, hold rights to an estimated 4.4 billion barrels of oil reserves—the largest allocation among foreign entities—according to a Morgan Stanley research note. These entitlements stem from long-term contracts signed during the Maduro era, part of a broader loans-for-oil arrangement that helped Caracas manage its finances amid Western sanctions. Estimates suggest Venezuela owes China at least $10 billion, though the figure could be higher due to delayed repayments caused by previous sanctions. Beijing has historically received Venezuelan crude as repayment, but a new interim government aligned with Washington may question the legality of these deals and halt further deliveries.

The U.S. move creates a complex challenge for China's energy security and its broader economic interests in Venezuela. Beyond oil, Chinese companies have invested heavily in telecommunications, railways, ports, and other infrastructure, all of which now face uncertainty. The situation has drawn comparisons to the 2011 fall of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, where Chinese firms lost billions in investments after a regime change. Beijing has responded firmly, with the Foreign Ministry expressing deep shock and strong condemnation of U.S. actions, demanding Maduro's immediate release. The Ministry of Commerce emphasized that no country has the right to interfere in legitimate economic cooperation between sovereign states.

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Despite the risks, analysts suggest the disruption to China's oil supply chain is likely to be limited in scope. Venezuelan crude accounts for only a small fraction of China's overall imports, and Beijing has diversified its energy sources while accelerating domestic electrification efforts. Experts like Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies note that while China will protest diplomatically, it lacks the leverage to directly protect its partners or assets once the U.S. applies decisive pressure. The Trump administration appears intent on avoiding unnecessary escalation with Beijing, particularly as Trump plans a visit to China in April to maintain the fragile trade truce agreed upon late last year.

The standoff underscores the geopolitical stakes in Venezuela, where oil resources have long been a flashpoint for international influence. With U.S. policy explicitly aimed at reducing adversarial footholds in the region and China's strategic partnership with Caracas now under threat, the coming weeks are expected to involve delicate negotiations. The outcome could reshape energy flows, debt repayment dynamics, and the balance of power in Latin America, while testing the durability of the current U.S.-China trade détente.

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