The next United Nations secretary-general will take office on January 1, 2027, inheriting an organisation facing wars, geopolitical divisions, financial pressures and growing questions about its ability to influence major international crises. António Guterres, whose second term ends on December 31, has repeatedly called for stronger multilateral cooperation as the UN approaches its 81st year. The organisation remains a central humanitarian and development actor, but its political influence has been constrained by disagreements among powerful member states and divisions within the Security Council.

One of the most immediate challenges will be restoring the UN’s role in conflict diplomacy. The organisation has struggled to occupy a decisive position in efforts to end wars and confrontations involving Ukraine, Gaza, Iran and other conflict zones, largely because geopolitical divisions have limited consensus among the major powers. Guterres has warned that the world’s fault lines have deepened and that mechanisms for collective action are under growing strain. The next secretary-general will therefore need to use the office’s diplomatic authority to bring governments back to negotiations while working within an international system in which the five permanent Security Council members retain veto power.

Security Council reform will be another major issue. The council’s permanent membership remains made up of the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom, reflecting the balance of power at the end of World War II rather than today’s geopolitical landscape. Calls for greater representation for Africa and other underrepresented regions have intensified. Guterres has highlighted the absence of permanent African representation as a major problem, while the UN’s current selection process itself is taking place amid questions over geography, gender and the influence of the five permanent members. The incoming secretary-general will have to navigate demands for reform without alienating the governments whose support is essential to the organisation’s functioning.

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Money will present another immediate constraint. The UN has faced a difficult financial situation as unpaid contributions, particularly from the United States, have contributed to pressure on the organisation’s budget and forced reductions in some humanitarian and development activities. At the same time, the UN continues to provide assistance in areas where national governments and other international institutions cannot easily substitute for its work. The next secretary-general will therefore have to balance demands for greater efficiency and institutional reform with the need to preserve programmes dealing with humanitarian emergencies, development, poverty and other global challenges.

Beyond war and finances, the next UN chief will inherit a rapidly changing global agenda that includes climate change, inequality and artificial intelligence. Guterres has described war and peace, inequality, climate change and AI as four defining tests of power for the international system. The UN has also begun work aimed at improving global AI governance, with developing countries demanding a greater role in determining international standards and policies. The incoming secretary-general will need to make the organisation relevant to these emerging issues while ensuring that developing countries have a meaningful voice in decisions that could affect their economies, societies and access to technology.

The selection of the next secretary-general is itself a test of the organisation’s ability to adapt. Seven candidates remain in the race after Michelle Bachelet withdrew, with the Security Council conducting informal straw polls before the final recommendation goes to the 193-member General Assembly. Recent voting has placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan among the leading candidates, although the process remains subject to negotiations among the permanent members and no final decision has been made. Whoever takes office will face the task Guterres outlined in his final General Assembly address: strengthening an institution whose relevance depends on whether its member states can translate diplomacy, cooperation and reform into practical action.

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