Ukrainian officials and military analysts warn that Russia is gearing up for a significant offensive in the coming weeks, aiming to tighten its grip on the battlefield and bolster its leverage in ceasefire talks.
With spring fighting season approaching, the Kremlin appears poised to launch a multi-front assault along the 1,000-kilometer front line, targeting the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, according to intelligence cited by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Speaking in Paris on Thursday, Zelenskyy accused Russia of stalling negotiations to buy time for territorial gains. “They’re dragging out talks, bogging the U.S. down in fake conditions, just to grab more land,” he said, suggesting Putin seeks to dictate terms from a position of strength.
Two G7 diplomats in Kyiv, speaking anonymously, echoed this view, doubting Russia’s sincerity in seeking peace.
Russia has dismissed a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire and clouded a tentative Black Sea shipping truce with demands like reconnecting its state bank to SWIFT—conditions Kyiv and the EU reject.
Putin, speaking at a Murmansk forum Thursday, boasted that Russian forces hold the upper hand, “liberating one settlement after another, every day.”
Military commanders report intensified Russian attacks to refine tactical positions. Analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi, who liaises with soldiers, said Russia is biding time until May for a broader push. In Kursk, Russian and North Korean troops have reclaimed 80% of the region from Ukraine’s bold 2024 incursion, weakening Kyiv’s bargaining power.
Battles are also heating up in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, with fears that victorious Kursk units could redeploy east.
Analyst Oleksii Hetman, tied to Ukraine’s general staff, predicts a Russian campaign lasting six to nine months through 2025. “The number of clashes isn’t dropping—if they wanted peace, their actions don’t show it,” he said.
Commanders note increased Russian reconnaissance, targeting Ukrainian defenses like drone systems and firing positions, signaling an imminent assault.
In Pokrovsk, a vital Donetsk stronghold, fighting has surged after a mid-March lull. “The Russians recovered and resumed attacks,” said military spokesman Maj. Viktor Trehubov. A soldier nicknamed “Italian” reported a buildup near Selidove, with fresh troops, armored vehicles, and ammo reserves detected via radio intercepts.
Further south, Russian blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk claimed a new Zaporizhzhia offensive west of Orikhiv aims to stretch Ukrainian lines, potentially paving the way for a regional takeover.
Russian analyst Sergey Poletaev projects confidence, writing that Ukraine’s strained forces could buckle within a year, handing Moscow a decisive edge. On the ground, Ukrainian troops like “Italian” express frustration with stalled talks but cling to hope for a shift.
“No one believes in negotiations, but we’re waiting for change,” he said. As both sides dig in, the looming offensive threatens to reshape the war’s trajectory.