Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban reached a fragile ceasefire, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, halting the most intense military clashes between the neighbors in years, which left dozens dead and hundreds wounded along the contested 2,600-kilometer Durand Line. The agreement, which commits both sides to respect territorial integrity, follows a turbulent month sparked by a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) suicide bombing that killed 23 at a police training school, prompting Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes on alleged TTP sites in Kabul and Kandahar. With a follow-up meeting slated for Istanbul, the truce offers temporary relief, but deep-seated issues, particularly Afghanistan’s alleged harboring of TTP militants, keep tensions perilously high.

The core grievance fueling the conflict is Pakistan’s accusation that the Taliban, since seizing power in 2021 post-U.S. withdrawal, have turned Afghanistan into a sanctuary for terrorist groups, notably the TTP. The UN reports that the TTP, bolstered by access to USD 7 billion in abandoned U.S. weaponry, has intensified cross-border attacks, with hundreds of fighters sheltered in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s frustration is compounded by Kabul’s growing ties with India, exemplified by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s recent New Delhi visit. In response, Pakistan has escalated its deterrence tactics, deporting tens of thousands of Afghan refugees fleeing Taliban oppression and blocking vital transit routes, severely impacting Afghanistan’s economy, which has struggled to reroute trade through costlier Iranian ports.

Pakistan’s predicament is a self-inflicted wound, rooted in three decades of nurturing the Taliban to counter Indian influence, as acknowledged by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif. This double-edged policy—publicly denouncing terrorism while covertly supporting extremists—enabled the Taliban’s 1990s rule, their resistance to U.S. intervention, and their 2021 resurgence, now backfiring through TTP’s emboldened assaults.

The recent violence, including a broken 48-hour ceasefire after Pakistan’s airstrikes allegedly killed Afghan civilians, underscores this patron-client reversal. While Islamabad denies civilian casualties, the Taliban’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani border posts highlight the escalating tit-for-tat dynamic threatening regional stability.

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The ceasefire’s fragility demands more than temporary pauses to address the conflict’s roots. The Taliban’s repressive regime, marked by medievalist policies, burdens Afghanistan’s people, yet past foreign interventions, including Pakistan’s, have failed to stabilize the country. A sustainable path forward requires international support to empower Afghan civil society for internal resistance, coupled with external pressure to sever the Taliban’s terror links. As Istanbul talks loom, Pakistan must confront its legacy of strategic miscalculations, while global actors prioritize humanitarian aid and diplomacy to prevent a deeper war that could destabilize South Asia further.

This article is a derivative work from the original authored by Amin Saikal, Adjunct Professor of Social Sciences at The University of Western Australia, Victoria University, and Australian National University. Republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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