Peace negotiations between Afghanistan and Pakistan concluded without resolution on October 28, 2025, after three days of tense discussions in Istanbul, hosted by Turkey. The talks, aimed at securing a long-term truce following deadly border clashes that killed over 200 people in September and October, hit an impasse over mutual accusations of harbouring militants. Both sides blamed the other for the deadlock, with the fragile ceasefire—brokered in Doha on October 19—now at risk of collapse, potentially reigniting hostilities along the 2,640-kilometre Durand Line. Afghan state media accused Pakistan of lacking intent for constructive dialogue, while Islamabad decried the Taliban's "illogical and detached" stance on counter-terrorism cooperation.

A bombshell revelation emerged during the sessions: Pakistan admitted it cannot halt drone strikes on Afghan soil due to a secret agreement with a foreign power, widely speculated to be the United States. This disclosure, reported by TOLO News and Indian media, came amid Islamabad's pleas for Kabul to rein in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group Islamabad claims operates with impunity from Afghan territory, launching attacks that have killed dozens of Pakistani soldiers recently.

The Taliban countered that the TTP issue is a "Pakistani problem", asserting no control over the group and committing only to preventing Afghan soil from being used against neighbours. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, who signed the initial ceasefire with his Afghan counterpart Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, warned that failure to curb cross-border militancy would lead to "open war", emphasising Islamabad's "evidence-based" demands for verifiable action against TTP networks.

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The impasse underscores deep-seated distrust rooted in the disputed Durand Line, a colonial-era border rejected by Afghanistan and escalating since the Taliban's 2021 takeover. Pakistan's recent air strikes on Kabul, targeting TTP leaders, and subsequent ground clashes in Kurram and North Waziristan—killing five soldiers and 25 militants over the weekend—have intensified recriminations. Turkey's mediation, building on Qatar's role in the ceasefire, sought to address these through phased confidence-building measures, including joint border patrols and intelligence sharing, but sources describe "tense exchanges" with no breakthroughs. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, amid renewed demands for Bagram airbase access, has offered mediation help, praising Pakistan's ties while pressuring the Taliban on counter-terrorism.

In response to the stalemate, the Taliban issued a stern warning against any fresh Pakistani incursions, vowing a "reciprocal response" to violations along the Durand Line. This rhetoric, coupled with weekend border skirmishes, signals fraying restraint. Analysts warn that without concessions—such as Pakistan clarifying its foreign pacts and Afghanistan cracking down on TTP safe havens—the region risks broader instability, drawing in actors like India and China. As delegations depart Istanbul, the onus falls on backchannel diplomacy to salvage the truce, lest economic woes from closed borders exacerbate humanitarian crises in both nations, where millions depend on cross-border trade.

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