The K-beauty boom, a global phenomenon driven by South Korea’s innovative skincare and cosmetics, is under threat as looming U.S. tariffs on South Korean imports could disrupt the affordability that has fueled its popularity. With a 25% tariff set to take effect on August 1 unless a trade deal is reached, American consumers and retailers are bracing for price hikes and potential product shortages, prompting a wave of panic-buying and strategic shifts in the industry.

South Korea, the top exporter of cosmetics to the U.S., shipped $1.7 billion worth of skincare and makeup products in 2024, a 54% increase from the previous year, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. K-beauty’s appeal lies in its high-quality, affordable products—like BB creams, snail mucin serums, and lightweight sunscreens—that have captivated American consumers with promises of “glass skin” and multi-step skincare rituals popularized by K-pop and K-dramas.

“Korean beauty products offer variety and innovation that American consumers crave,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s part of South Korea’s global cultural influence, alongside ‘Parasite’ and BTS.”

However, President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on South Korean goods, announced after a temporary 10% baseline tariff, threatens to upend this thriving market. The U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) since 2012 allowed these products to enter tax-free, making K-beauty brands like Laneige, Sulwhasoo, and Dr.Jart+ accessible to a wide audience. Now, with negotiations stalled, the impending tariff could significantly increase costs. For instance, a $10 hydrating essence might rise to $12-$14, impacting both consumers and businesses.

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Retailers are already feeling the pressure. Senti Senti, a New York-based boutique specializing in Asian beauty products, saw a surge in “panic buying” when tariffs were first announced, though the rush slowed after a 90-day pause. Manager Winnie Zhong noted that 90% of their stock is from South Korea and Japan, and a 25% tariff would force price increases, potentially alienating customers who value K-beauty’s affordability. “It’s supposed to be accessible pricing,” Zhong said. Similarly, Ohlolly, an online K-beauty retailer, has paused restocking due to cost uncertainties, with owners Sue Greene and Herra Namhie estimating only two to four months of inventory left.

Consumers are reacting swiftly. Amrita Bhasin, a 24-year-old from Menlo Park, California, stockpiled 50 sheet masks from brands like U-Need and MediHeal, fearing price hikes. “I won’t switch to U.S. products; Korean masks are unmatched in quality,” she said. Los Angeles resident Jen Chae, a content creator with 1.2 million YouTube subscribers, paused orders from platforms like YesStyle.com due to tariff uncertainty, though the site offers store credit for import charges. Social media reflects this anxiety, with influencers like Taylor Bosman Teague showcasing bulk hauls on TikTok, and Reddit users debating stockpiling strategies.

K-beauty brands and suppliers are adapting. Charlotte Cho, founder of Soko Glam and Then I Met You, noted that some Korean manufacturers are shifting production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, though this could alter product formulations. “If you notice your favorite CC cream or lip gloss feels different, don’t be surprised,” she said. Major manufacturers like Kolmar Korea and Cosmax are doubling U.S. production, while giants like Amorepacific, behind brands like Laneige, are monitoring the situation before deciding on price adjustments. KraveBeauty’s founder, Liah Yoo, warned on TikTok that prices may rise above their $28 ceiling, a first in the brand’s seven-year history.

The tariffs could also disrupt supply chains. Many K-beauty products rely on Chinese packaging, now subject to a 145% tariff, which may force brands to source alternatives from countries like Vietnam or South Korea itself, potentially causing delays or “shrinkflation”—smaller product sizes at the same price. David Chung, CEO of Innovation Labs, advised brands to act quickly, as relocating supply chains takes six to twelve months.

Not all are pessimistic. Rachel Weingarten, a beauty newsletter writer, cautioned against excessive stockpiling due to expiration dates and suggested exploring alternatives. “The beauty world is bigger than one country,” she said. Andrew Yeo from the Brookings Institution believes K-beauty’s cultural cachet may withstand price hikes, as loyal fans prioritize quality over cost. Still, for budget-conscious consumers like students, even a 10-20% increase could push them toward domestic brands like Neutrogena.

As South Korea races to negotiate a trade deal before the August 1 deadline, the K-beauty industry hangs in the balance. While its cultural influence remains strong, the tariffs test whether affordability or allure will define its future in the U.S. market.

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