Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confronts a pivotal test in Sunday’s upper house election, with his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito at risk of losing their majority. A defeat could deepen political instability, exacerbate economic challenges, and threaten Ishiba’s leadership, amid soaring rice prices, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising populist sentiment.  

A Fragile Coalition and Voter Discontent  
The LDP, rocked by a lower house election loss in October 2024 due to corruption scandals and high living costs, is struggling to regain voter trust. Ishiba’s minority government has been forced to make concessions to opposition parties to pass legislation, hampering its ability to address inflation—running at 3.5%, above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target—and stagnant wages.

Rice prices, a cultural staple, have doubled since last year due to supply shortages and complex distribution systems, sparking panic buying and public frustration. New Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s emergency release of rice reserves has eased shortages but failed to lower prices significantly.  

Ishiba’s coalition, which held 141 of 248 upper house seats, needs to win at least 50 of the 125 seats up for grabs to maintain a majority with its 75 uncontested seats. Polls show the LDP at 20.9% support, trailed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) at 9.1%, the far-right Sanseito at 6.9%, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) at 6.1%. A striking 38.2% of voters remain undecided, making the outcome unpredictable.

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U.S. Tariffs Add Pressure  
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Japanese exports, set to take effect August 1, 2025, has intensified economic concerns, particularly for Japan’s auto and electronics sectors. Trump has criticized Japan for limited U.S. auto and rice imports, despite Japan’s domestic rice shortage. Ishiba, taking a tougher stance, declared at a July 9 rally, “We will not be disrespected,” emphasizing Japan’s role as the largest foreign investor in the U.S. However, trade talks led by Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa have stalled, with no deal in sight. 

Rise of Populism and Xenophobia  
The election has seen a surge in populist rhetoric, led by the Sanseito party’s “Japanese First” platform, which proposes stricter immigration controls and a new agency to centralize foreigner-related policies. Sanseito, polling at 6.9%, has capitalized on economic discontent, falsely claiming foreign workers—3% of Japan’s population—drain welfare and depress wages. The LDP’s own “zero illegal immigrants” slogan and task force for stricter foreigner policies reflect a shift toward conservative voters, alarming human rights activists. Experts warn that Japan’s aging population needs foreign workers, urging a strategic immigration policy. 

Fractured Opposition and Coalition Challenges  
Opposition parties, including the CDPJ, DPP, and Sanseito, have gained ground, drawing conservative LDP supporters disillusioned by Ishiba’s policy flip-flops. CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister, promises tax cuts and progressive policies like same-sex marriage recognition. However, the eight opposition groups remain too divided to form a united front. Speculation of a trilateral coalition with Komeito and DPP or the Japan Innovation Party has faded, with cooperation limited to specific legislation. A loss of the upper house majority could trigger coalition realignments or an LDP push to replace Ishiba, with Shinjiro Koizumi emerging as a potential rival.  

Leadership at Stake  
A poor showing could spark an LDP leadership challenge, with University of Tokyo professor Yu Uchiyama warning, “There will be a move within the LDP to dump Ishiba.” Even a majority win would leave Ishiba’s leadership fragile, reliant on opposition support to govern. His approval rating, at 20.9% in May 2025, reflects widespread distrust, particularly over tariff negotiations.  

As Japan’s 125 upper house seats are contested, the election’s outcome will shape Ishiba’s fate and Japan’s ability to navigate economic and geopolitical challenges. Live results will be available on NHK and other major Japanese media outlets.

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