Iraqi authorities have projected that the country’s oil production will return to pre-war levels within one to two months, following disruptions caused by the recent conflict in the Middle East that significantly reduced exports and unsettled global energy markets. According to state media reports, the announcement was made by the spokesperson for Iraq’s Oil Ministry, Salim Farhoud, who said production capacity at several key oil fields is now being gradually restored.

He noted that fields which had previously scaled back output are beginning to ramp up operations once again, signalling a steady recovery in output levels. The disruption to Iraq’s oil sector followed the broader regional conflict and restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global energy shipments. The temporary blockade had severely impacted exports, forcing production cuts across several oil-producing countries, including Iraq, and creating volatility in international oil prices.

Iraq, one of the founding members of OPEC, typically exports around 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, with a large portion of shipments historically routed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, during the peak of the disruption, exports were significantly curtailed, with shipments redirected through alternative routes via neighbouring Turkey and Syria where possible.

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Oil Minister Bassem Khodeir stated that exports are expected to recover gradually as normal maritime traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the pace of recovery will depend on the stability of the shipping route and the restoration of full operational capacity across affected oil fields. Before the disruption, Iraq’s crude exports were reported to be around 93 million barrels, but officials said this figure dropped sharply during the conflict period.

As oil accounts for nearly 90 percent of Iraq’s national revenue, the impact of the export decline was felt broadly across the economy. The anticipated recovery comes after reports of an initial agreement between Iran and the United States aimed at easing tensions and reopening vital shipping lanes. While follow-up negotiations remain ongoing, Iraqi officials have expressed cautious optimism that energy flows will stabilise in the coming weeks, allowing production and exports to return to normal levels.

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