Israel is scheduled to hold a national election on October 27, marking its first parliamentary vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. The election is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent years, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking another term amid declining public confidence. Although opinion polls suggest Netanyahu and his coalition face a difficult contest, Israel's coalition-based political system often produces unpredictable outcomes, with smaller parties playing a decisive role in government formation.
Recent surveys indicate that Netanyahu's Likud-led alliance could struggle to retain power, with many voters holding the Prime Minister accountable for the security failures surrounding the October 7 attacks. While many Israelis have supported the country's military operations in response to the attacks, public confidence in Netanyahu's leadership has remained subdued. His government's policies on religion and state have also drawn criticism. Despite the polling trends, Netanyahu's long political career and ability to build coalitions have made him one of Israel's most resilient political figures, leaving the election outcome far from certain.
Several opposition leaders are seeking to unseat Netanyahu. Former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a strong challenger, presenting himself as a security-focused leader with military experience and a reputation for integrity. Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who previously joined forces to remove Netanyahu from office in 2021, are also in the race through their alliance. Another prominent contender is former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, once a close ally of Netanyahu, who has since become one of his strongest critics while maintaining a hardline stance on national security.
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Israel elects members to its 120-seat Knesset through a system of proportional representation, with parliamentary elections generally held every four years. Political parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament. As no party has ever won an outright majority, coalition governments are essential, making negotiations between multiple parties a defining feature of Israeli politics. This system gives smaller parties considerable influence over the formation and survival of governments, often allowing them to shape policy in exchange for coalition support.
The political landscape remains fluid ahead of the September deadline for parties to submit their candidate lists, leaving room for alliances, mergers, or withdrawals before the election. Netanyahu's bloc currently includes Likud, Religious Zionism, and Jewish Power, while ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism continue to play an influential role despite no longer being part of the government. The opposition features Eisenkot's Yashar, the Bennett-Lapid alliance Together, Lieberman's Israel Our Home, four Arab-majority parties—Hadash, Taal, Raam, and Balad—and the left-wing Democrats led by former general Yair Golan. With no clear majority projected for any single bloc, coalition negotiations after the vote are expected to be as significant as the election itself.
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