US President Donald Trump's campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize is expected to draw considerable attention when the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces this year's laureate on Friday, October 9, even as experts assess his prospects as low. Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to receive the prestigious award and has campaigned publicly for recognition for what he describes as his efforts to promote peace. However, experts tracking the 2026 prize say he is not considered a leading candidate. Reuters reported earlier this month that Trump would not win this year's prize, while other analysts have similarly described his chances as limited. The committee's decision is expected to attract unusual attention because of Trump's prominent campaign for the award and the political implications that could surround its eventual choice.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has received 287 nominations for this year's Peace Prize, although the identities of nominees remain confidential for 50 years. The field includes individuals and organisations working across humanitarian, human rights and peace-building areas, making the eventual selection difficult to predict from publicly available information. Among the names and organisations discussed by experts are Ukrainian children's rights advocate Mykola Kuleba, Save the Children, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms and the International Space Station. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also emerged in discussions surrounding possible contenders. The committee itself does not publicly identify a shortlist before the announcement, meaning speculation ahead of Friday's decision does not amount to confirmation of any candidate's standing inside the selection process.

Trump's prominence in the discussion has partly been driven by his sustained public campaign for the prize since returning to the White House in January 2025. He has repeatedly argued that his diplomatic efforts and involvement in international conflicts deserve recognition. His supporters have also pointed to his claims of helping bring conflicts toward ceasefires or negotiations. However, experts cited in recent reporting have raised questions about how the committee could assess his record amid continuing international conflicts and disputes involving the United States. Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said Trump remained a significant factor in the discussion even if he was not viewed as a leading contender. He described Trump as “the spectre in the room” and suggested the committee would have to consider whether awarding the prize in a particular way could create additional pressure or controversy.

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The controversy surrounding Trump's Nobel campaign has also been shaped by events involving last year's laureate, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her work toward a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela. In January 2026, she presented the Nobel medal to Trump as a gesture recognising what she regarded as his contribution to Venezuela's freedom. The Nobel organisation has made clear that the prize itself is not transferable, meaning the presentation did not change Machado's status as the laureate. The episode nevertheless linked Trump even more closely with the Nobel Peace Prize in public debate and is now part of the backdrop against which this year's committee is operating. Experts have suggested that the experience could influence how the committee considers the possible political consequences surrounding this year's selection.

The broader international situation is another important factor in this year's Nobel discussion. The Peace Research Institute Oslo recorded 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025, reportedly the highest number since 1946. Conflicts and humanitarian crises in regions including the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan have intensified debate about the role of international institutions and peace-building organisations. Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said lobbying around the award was common and that attempts to influence the committee did not determine its discussions or decisions. He has also emphasised the continuing relevance of the Peace Prize at a time when the international order is undergoing significant changes.

The committee is due to announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner in Oslo on Friday, bringing an end to weeks of speculation surrounding the possible laureate. Trump's campaign is likely to remain a major part of the conversation until the announcement, regardless of whether his name is ultimately selected. Analysts have pointed to a wide range of possible recipients, from humanitarian organisations and children's rights advocates to institutions representing international cooperation. The International Space Station, for instance, has been highlighted by some experts as a symbol of cooperation between countries at a time of growing geopolitical tension. With the committee keeping its deliberations private, the public debate remains largely based on expert analysis and known nominations rather than information about the committee's final decision. The winner will be known only when the Norwegian Nobel Committee makes its official announcement on October 9.

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