The top US derivatives regulator is investigating a series of suspicious oil futures trades that appeared to be unusually well-timed ahead of recent policy announcements by President Donald Trump related to the ongoing war in Iran. The probe is being led by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is examining trading activity on major exchanges including CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials are reportedly reviewing multiple instances over the past two weeks in which oil trading volumes spiked shortly before major geopolitical or policy developments were announced. The investigation is focused on whether traders may have had access to material non-public information tied to shifts in US policy, raising concerns about potential market manipulation or insider advantage in highly sensitive energy markets.

As part of the inquiry, the CFTC has requested detailed trading data from the exchanges, including “Tag 50” identifiers that can reveal the entities behind specific trades. Regulators are attempting to determine whether any coordinated or unusual trading patterns were linked to advance knowledge of policy decisions, particularly those involving Iran-related ceasefire or sanctions-related announcements.

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A similar trading pattern was reportedly observed ahead of President Trump’s April 7 announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, further intensifying scrutiny from regulators. The repeated timing of spikes in trading activity has prompted concerns about whether confidential policy information may have been indirectly or improperly accessed before public disclosure.

The investigation comes amid heightened volatility in global energy markets, where oil prices have been heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Analysts say that even minor policy signals can trigger large swings in futures markets, making them vulnerable to speculative or informed trading strategies.

While no wrongdoing has been confirmed at this stage, the CFTC’s inquiry highlights growing regulatory focus on ensuring fairness and transparency in energy trading markets. Authorities are expected to continue collecting data from exchanges and market participants to determine whether any violations of trading laws or disclosure rules have occurred.

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