A recently formalised Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has ignited debates in strategic circles, with analysts questioning its true intent amid escalating regional tensions. Signed on September 17, 2025, during Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's state visit to Riyadh, the pact commits both nations to treat any aggression against one as an attack on both, aiming to bolster joint deterrence and defence cooperation.
The agreement, which encompasses conventional and potentially nuclear capabilities, builds on decades of collaboration rooted in shared Sunni Muslim identity, economic ties, and military exchanges, including Pakistan's training of thousands of Saudi personnel since the 1950s. However, experts caution that its public declaration—unprecedented in its explicitness—may serve as a veiled message to external powers rather than a straightforward bilateral shield.
The pact's origins trace back to longstanding suspicions of nuclear linkages, with Saudi Arabia allegedly funding aspects of Pakistan's atomic programme in the 1980s and 1990s, including visits by Saudi royals to facilities led by A.Q. Khan. Pakistan's arsenal, estimated at around 170 warheads deployable via air, sea, and land platforms, remains primarily orientated toward its rivalry with India, which possesses a comparable 180 warheads. Riyadh's Defence Minister's ambiguous statements—initially downplaying nuclear elements before affirming their inclusion—highlight internal opacity, as even high-level Pakistani civilians rarely access nuclear details.
This echoes historical precedents, such as the 1980s Chinese missile acquisitions by Saudi Arabia, designed for potential nuclear roles but never confirmed as operational, underscoring the pact's murky deterrence value. Iran's welcoming response, framing it as a step toward a West Asian security architecture, further complicates matters, as it challenges Pakistan's ability to extend its doctrine—including first-use and tactical weapons—regionally without diluting focus on India.
Credibility remains a core concern, as effective nuclear umbrellas demand verifiable deployment, akin to NATO's stationing of U.S. assets in Europe to ensure retaliation. Pakistan's past reluctance—such as declining Saudi requests for involvement in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthis—raises doubts about its resolve in a Shia-Sunni conflict.
Analysts note that any physical relocation of assets to Saudi soil would require Chinese approval, given Beijing's technological backing of Islamabad's programme, potentially clashing with U.S. interests. On conventional fronts, the deal could funnel Saudi funds into Pakistan's forces, bolstering U.S.-sourced weaponry while respecting Riyadh's ties with New Delhi, which prohibit use against India. Yet, expansion via forums like the 2015 Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition seems improbable, given doctrinal incompatibilities.
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At its heart, the SMDA reflects Riyadh's hedging strategy amid eroding U.S. reliability, exacerbated by Israel's recent strikes on Qatar and the Gaza conflict's spillover. With Washington under President Trump securing $142 billion in Saudi arms deals and $600 billion in investments during a May 2025 Gulf tour, the pact appears as "cheap deterrence", outsourcing regional stability to local actors, mirroring U.S. disengagement in Ukraine.
For Pakistan, it elevates status but risks entangling it in volatile Middle East dynamics. India, viewing it through the lens of a May 2025 border clash with Islamabad, has signalled national security reviews, potentially deepening New Delhi-Tel Aviv ties. Ultimately, the agreement's ripples extend to China, Russia, and global trade routes like the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, pressuring India to hike defence spending from its current economic-growth focus and reshaping multipolar alignments in Asia and West Asia.
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