A U.S.-brokered agreement signed on August 8, 2025, at the White House between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has elicited cautious optimism and skepticism across both nations. Aimed at ending nearly four decades of conflict, the deal marks a significant step toward normalization but falls short of a formal peace treaty, leaving the contentious Nagorno-Karabakh dispute unresolved.
The agreement, signed in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, includes a strategic transit corridor named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province. This corridor, which could include rail, oil, gas, and fiber optic lines, aims to boost regional trade and energy exports while granting the U.S. exclusive development rights. The deal also commits both nations to cease hostilities, open diplomatic relations, and respect territorial integrity, signaling a shift away from Russia’s waning influence in the South Caucasus.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, centered on Nagorno-Karabakh, has fueled two wars since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, the region was controlled by ethnic Armenian forces until Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive reclaimed it, displacing nearly 100,000 ethnic Armenians. The 1990s and 2020 wars left tens of thousands dead and deepened mistrust. The new agreement reflects Azerbaijan’s strengthened position post-2023 and Armenia’s pivot toward Western alignment, particularly after Russia’s failure to support Armenia during the offensive.
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In Azerbaijan, optimism prevails. Ali Karimli, leader of the People’s Front of Azerbaijan Party, hailed the deal on social media as a step toward peace and a blow to Russian influence, a sentiment echoed by Musavat Party chairman Arif Hajili, who emphasized the absence of Russia in negotiations. Baku residents like Gunduz Aliyev expressed relief, telling the Associated Press, “We needed a strong guarantor like the U.S., not Russia.” Ali Mammadov predicted open borders and stability, while Abulfat Jafarov called peace “always a good thing.” The deal’s economic promise, including energy and trade cooperation with the U.S., fuels hope in Azerbaijan.
In Yerevan, reactions are mixed. Entrepreneur Hrach Ghasumyan sees potential economic gains, noting that pipelines and railways through Armenia could reverse its isolation, as most regional routes currently bypass it via Georgia. However, others are wary. Edvard Avoyan told the Associated Press that the agreement’s vague terms need clarification, while Ruzanna Ghazaryan criticized it as “one-sided,” arguing it favors Azerbaijan. Domestic opposition to Pashinyan, already strained by his pro-Western shift and 2023 concessions, intensified after protests led by a prominent archbishop in 2024 demanded his resignation.
The deal’s success hinges on challenges like Armenia’s economic ties to Russia and the 2 million Azerbaijanis living there, which Hajili warned could be leveraged by Moscow. Russia, sidelined by the U.S.-led process, expressed concerns via TASS that the West seeks a “geopolitical foothold” in the region. Iran also criticized the corridor’s route along its border, fearing isolation. Experts like Olesya Vartanyan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies stress that sustained U.S. engagement is crucial to prevent renewed tensions, given the history of failed talks.
Both leaders praised Trump, nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize, a nod he welcomed. The agreement’s broader impact includes dissolving the Russia-co-chaired Minsk Group, deemed obsolete by the White House. While the deal offers hope for stability and economic growth, unresolved issues like Nagorno-Karabakh’s status and regional power dynamics leave many in Armenia and Azerbaijan cautiously watching its implementation.
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