Following the dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military raid on Saturday, January 4, 2026, the Trump administration has shifted focus to Diosdado Cabello, Venezuela's powerful interior minister and longtime Maduro ally. According to sources familiar with the matter, Cabello—widely regarded as the regime's chief enforcer and controller of security forces accused of systematic human rights abuses—has been placed on notice that he could become the next primary target unless he cooperates with Interim President Delcy Rodríguez and complies with U.S. demands for stability during the transition. The administration views Cabello as one of the few remaining Maduro loyalists capable of maintaining order but is actively seeking to limit his influence and prepare for his eventual removal or exile.

Cabello, who oversees Venezuela's military and civilian intelligence agencies (SEBIN and DGCIM), has long been under U.S. indictment for drug trafficking and maintains a multimillion-dollar bounty on his head. U.S. officials have communicated through intermediaries that defiance could lead to a fate similar to Maduro's—capture and prosecution on narco-terrorism charges—or even personal danger. The warning aims to compel Cabello's cooperation in preventing chaos, particularly from pro-government colectivos (motorcycle gangs), which could unleash widespread violence if they perceive their protectors as threatened. However, sources caution that targeting Cabello carries significant risks, as his removal might provoke instability the United States is determined to avoid.

The Trump administration has expressed doubts about the Venezuelan opposition's ability to maintain peace in the immediate post-Maduro period. A classified CIA assessment reportedly concluded that Maduro's inner circle, including figures like Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López (also under U.S. indictment), is better positioned to oversee a temporary government. Padrino is seen as more pragmatic and potentially open to a negotiated exit, while Cabello is considered more hardline and ideologically rigid. For now, Washington is prioritizing stability to enable U.S. oil companies to access Venezuela's vast reserves, halt illegal migration and drug flows, expel Cuban security personnel, and end cooperation with Iran.

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Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has emerged as the linchpin of the U.S. strategy, viewed as a technocrat amenable to cooperating on oil industry reforms and other key objectives. Sources indicate that the administration plans to leverage Rodríguez's financial assets, reportedly sheltered in Qatar, as additional pressure. U.S. officials have demanded visible progress within weeks on issues such as opening Venezuela's oil sector on favorable terms for American companies and cracking down on narcotics trafficking. The broader goal appears to be exerting heavy external influence over the transition without deploying ground troops, which would be politically unpopular domestically.

Critics have condemned the U.S. intervention as neocolonialism and a violation of international law, pointing to the unprecedented nature of the raid on a sovereign leader since the 1989 invasion of Panama. The Trump administration has not provided a detailed roadmap for governance beyond the interim period, describing the strategy as a work in progress. Venezuela's communications ministry has not responded to requests for comment on the developments. As the situation remains fluid, the U.S. continues efforts to co-opt mid-level officials and shape a transition aligned with its strategic interests in the region.

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