An executive order signed by US President Donald Trump lifting 25 percent penal tariffs on India carries a significant caveat that could place fresh pressure on New Delhi, strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney has warned. He described the directive to monitor India’s oil imports from Russia as the “real sting” embedded in the order.

Under the executive order, the US commerce secretary has been instructed to track whether India “resumes” the import of Russian oil, directly or indirectly. The wording assumes that India has already committed to halting such purchases, a claim that New Delhi has neither officially confirmed nor denied as part of the broader trade deal framework with Washington.

The order states that “India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil,” linking the rollback of tariffs to India’s energy procurement decisions. Analysts say this introduces a compliance mechanism that goes beyond trade and into strategic and foreign policy territory.

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Chellaney flagged the move as part of what he termed a “coercive tariff strategy,” arguing that tariff relief is being used as leverage to influence India’s sovereign choices, particularly in relation to its long-standing energy ties with Russia. He said the monitoring clause effectively places India under continued US scrutiny, even after the removal of punitive duties.

India has increased its purchases of discounted Russian crude since the Ukraine war began, citing energy security and consumer interests. While US officials have repeatedly raised concerns over such imports, India has maintained that its decisions are guided by national interest and market conditions.

The Trump administration’s order marks a sharper approach, tying trade concessions to geopolitical alignment. Observers note that the monitoring mandate gives Washington room to reimpose pressure if it believes India is not adhering to the stated commitment.

So far, the Indian government has remained silent on the specific claim that it has agreed to stop buying Russian oil. Officials have only indicated that trade discussions with the US are ongoing and complex, involving multiple sectors and strategic considerations.

The development underscores growing tensions between economic diplomacy and strategic autonomy, with analysts warning that the US move could set a precedent for linking tariff policy to foreign policy compliance.

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