Concerns over global supply-chain stability are rising as tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict continue to escalate, with experts warning that disruptions could emerge within weeks if the situation persists. The focus has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of global energy trade flows.

Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist at Axis Bank and Head of Global Research at Axis Capital, told NDTV Profit that supply-chain disruptions could materialise in as little as two weeks if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. He noted that financial markets are increasingly intertwined with the conflict dynamics, with Iran reportedly using market pressure as a strategic tool. According to him, the Strait of Hormuz remains central to global energy security and price stability.

Mishra also observed that the United States has so far managed to stabilise market expectations, even as uncertainty continues to persist. However, he warned that prolonged instability in the region could have cascading effects on global trade, shipping routes, and energy pricing, particularly if maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz are restricted or disrupted.

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Adding to these concerns, the Reserve Bank of India highlighted potential economic risks in its ‘State of the Economy’ report published in its April bulletin. The central bank noted that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have already intensified pressures on global supply chains, particularly in March, although some easing was observed in early April. It cautioned that the duration and intensity of the conflict remain key risk factors.

The RBI further stated that if disruptions persist, the Indian economy could face multiple challenges, including higher energy costs, increased input prices, trade flow interruptions, and financial market volatility. It also warned that damage to energy infrastructure and prolonged instability could negatively impact both inflation and growth outlooks, making global supply-chain resilience a key concern for policymakers and markets alike.

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