A new study has found that inaccurate weather forecasts can significantly affect people's emotional well-being, triggering feelings such as anxiety, fatigue, confusion and sadness during severe weather events. Published in the journal GeoHealth, the research was conducted by scientists from Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), who examined public reactions to forecast errors during Typhoon Khanun, which struck Japan and South Korea in 2023. The findings suggest that forecast inaccuracies can have consequences beyond physical safety, influencing public perception and mental health during natural disasters.

For the study, researchers analysed rainfall data collected from 613 weather stations during Typhoon Khanun and used artificial intelligence to examine more than 43,000 online posts shared by the public throughout the event. Their analysis identified notable regional differences in forecast accuracy. Rainfall was generally underestimated in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Korean Peninsula, while forecasts tended to overestimate rainfall across western regions and metropolitan areas.

The researchers found that the type of forecasting error influenced emotional responses in different ways. Areas where rainfall was overestimated experienced higher levels of anxiety, worry and fatigue among residents, while regions where rainfall was underestimated showed greater expressions of confusion, embarrassment, stress and sadness. According to the study, these emotional reactions were largely driven by the gap between public expectations based on forecasts and the actual weather conditions experienced on the ground.

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Overall, approximately 55 per cent of the online posts analysed reflected negative emotions, with anxiety and worry emerging as the most common responses. The study also found that people actively searched for weather-related information before the typhoon made landfall, while online discussions shifted towards sharing personal experiences and reporting local conditions as the storm unfolded. This pattern highlighted the important role that weather forecasts play in shaping public behaviour before and during extreme weather events.

Lead author Kiru Kim said the findings demonstrate that weather forecasting is not only a scientific and technical challenge but also a critical component of disaster communication. He noted that improving forecast accuracy should be accompanied by effective strategies for communicating uncertainty, enabling people to better understand potential risks without causing unnecessary panic or false reassurance during severe weather situations.

Professor Jonghun Kam added that artificial intelligence can play an important role in analysing large-scale public discussions to better understand the emotional impact of forecast errors. The researchers believe their findings could help governments and meteorological agencies develop more effective risk communication strategies for typhoons and other natural disasters, ensuring that forecast information supports both public safety and psychological well-being.

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