India could have over 440 million overweight and obese people by 2050, making it the second highest globally after China, according to a new study published in The Lancet. The findings, part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, were compiled by an international team of researchers, including those from the Indian Council of Medical Research.

By mid-century, the study estimates that India will have 218 million overweight or obese men and 231 million women. The US, Brazil, and Nigeria are expected to follow China and India in rankings.

As of 2021, nearly half of the world’s adults—over a billion men and women each—were overweight or obese. In India, the number stood at nearly 180 million, with 81 million men and 98 million women affected. Globally, this figure could rise to 3.8 billion by 2050, surpassing half of the world’s projected adult population.

The burden is expected to rise significantly among children and young adults. By 2050, India could have 16 million overweight boys and 14 million girls aged 5-14—the second-highest after China. Among 15-24-year-olds, India could top the global list, with 22 million men and nearly 17 million women affected.

Lead author Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, called the obesity crisis a “monumental societal failure.” She emphasised the need for targeted interventions and prevention strategies.

The study aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent Mann Ki Baat address, where he stressed the importance of tackling obesity for a healthier nation. Experts, however, argue that BMI alone is an inadequate measure and advocate for a more comprehensive approach, including waist-to-hip ratio and organ dysfunction markers, to assess obesity risks accurately.