The ongoing conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates has intensified strategic tensions in the region, raising questions about the UAE’s role as a key partner of the United States. The situation has prompted a broader reassessment of security arrangements in the Gulf, particularly as the UAE finds itself increasingly exposed to direct military threats despite its traditionally defensive posture.

The UAE, which was designated a major US defence partner in 2024, has significantly expanded cooperation with Washington in areas such as defence, artificial intelligence, and investment. However, the ongoing war with Iran has forced a public reckoning over the costs and risks associated with hosting US military facilities, with critics arguing that such ties have drawn the country into a conflict it did not initiate.

Since late February 2026, Iran has launched an extensive series of attacks on targets within the UAE, reportedly firing 438 ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, and 19 cruise missiles. These strikes have resulted in 13 fatalities and left 224 people injured, underscoring the scale and intensity of the hostilities. Key targets included US-linked installations such as the Al Dhafra Air Base, effectively placing the UAE on the frontlines of the conflict.

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Despite the scale of the assault, Emirati defence systems have reportedly intercepted more than 90% of incoming threats. By March 12, air defence units had neutralised 268 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,514 drones. Officials have pointed to these figures as evidence of the country’s growing military capability and resilience in the face of sustained external aggression.

Meanwhile, regional political rhetoric has escalated, with Masoud Pezeshkian calling for the closure of US military bases across the Gulf. Iran’s supreme leadership, represented by Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued warnings that such installations could face further attacks if they remain operational, signalling a hardening stance from Tehran.

Within the UAE, senior officials have begun to signal a shift in strategic thinking. Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash has stated that any future agreement with Iran must include guarantees against renewed attacks as well as reparations for damages. His remarks suggest that Abu Dhabi may be exploring a reconfiguration of Gulf security frameworks, potentially reducing reliance on Washington while prioritising long-term regional stability.

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