The BJP faces mounting challenges in its bid for a hat-trick in Assam as dissident leaders and alliance friction threaten its electoral prospects ahead of the April 9 Assembly elections. Several senior party leaders who were denied tickets have either joined rival parties or decided to contest as independents, raising concerns over vote division in key constituencies. The BJP’s alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has also hit turbulence, with both parties fielding candidates against each other in multiple seats.

Nandita Garlosa, a sitting MLA and minister in Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s government, joined the Congress after being denied a ticket and is contesting Haflong, a seat she previously held. Jayanta Kumar Das, former vice-president of the Assam BJP, quit the party to contest as an independent from Dispur, where the BJP has nominated Congress turncoat Pradyut Bordoloi. Amar Chand Jain, former BJP MLA from Katigorah, has also joined Congress and is contesting from his former constituency.

The BJP’s decision to deny tickets to senior veterans, including former state chief Siddhartha Bhattacharjee and five-time MLA Atul Bora, has contributed to internal dissidence. Analysts say this factionalism could pose a major hurdle for the BJP in areas where the denied leaders maintain strong local support. Party strategists are now tasked with mitigating the impact of these defections to preserve vote share.

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Alliance complications have added another layer of uncertainty. In Sivasagar, the AGP fielded Prodip Hazarika as its NDA candidate, but the BJP’s nomination of Kushal Dowari has created a “friendly fight” scenario. Both candidates will face Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi, who is allied with the Congress. Similarly, in the newly formed Chamaria constituency, AGP’s Nurul Islam and BJP’s Jyostna Kalita are contesting against each other, potentially splitting votes.

Senior party leaders acknowledge the risk these internal and alliance conflicts pose but remain cautiously optimistic. Analysts note that the BJP’s organisational strength and presence across constituencies could offset some of the losses from friendly fights and dissident candidatures. However, in closely contested seats, these factors could tip the balance toward opposition parties.

Rupam Goswami, chief spokesperson of the Assam BJP, dismissed concerns over dissidents, saying, “We are a big party, and in every constituency, we have several leaders. There were several ticket aspirants, so there would be disappointments, but people are working for the party. Not many people want to contest as independents, and those who do may realise the stakes and withdraw.” The party appears determined to maintain cohesion despite emerging challenges as it heads into the final stretch of campaigning.

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