The Congress party's internal deliberations over a potential leadership transition in Karnataka remain suspended, with a definitive resolution anticipated only after the Bihar Assembly election results on November 14, 2025. Both Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar have intensified lobbying efforts, scheduling separate visits to New Delhi to engage with the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) leadership. Shivakumar is slated to arrive on November 11, coinciding with the conclusion of Bihar polling, while Siddaramaiah plans his trip on November 15, underscoring the strategic timing tied to national electoral outcomes.

Shivakumar seeks a crucial meeting with Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi to press his claim for the Chief Minister's post, invoking an alleged 2023 agreement for a mid-term rotation following the Congress victory. In contrast, Siddaramaiah, during his previous Delhi visit, avoided direct interaction with Rahul Gandhi and publicly reaffirmed his intent to complete a full five-year term, contingent on high command approval. Sources indicate that a Congress-RJD alliance victory in Bihar could embolden the leadership to orchestrate a seamless power transfer, whereas a setback might preserve the status quo to maintain stability.

Cabinet reshuffle speculations have prompted ministerial maneuvering, with several incumbents fearing exclusion and aspirants flocking to the national capital for advocacy. Siddaramaiah's allies, including AHINDA community representatives and loyal ministers, advocate for a portfolio realignment that secures his position without altering the top post. Conversely, Shivakumar's faction rejects reshuffle proposals, insisting on adherence to the purported rotational pact and anticipating a decisive announcement on November 26 or 28.

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Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi emerges as a potential compromise candidate for Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president if Shivakumar ascends, facilitating a negotiated transition. AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge is expected to mediate the final decision, balancing factional demands with organizational cohesion. Siddaramaiah's recent Mangaluru assertion of serving the full term has been interpreted by some MLAs as a veiled readiness to step down under favorable conditions.

The prolonged uncertainty reflects broader Congress strategies to synchronize state-level adjustments with national priorities, particularly amid Bihar's high-stakes contest. Party insiders emphasize that any leadership change must minimize internal discord and electoral repercussions in Karnataka, where governance deliverables under the five-guarantee schemes remain under scrutiny. As Delhi consultations unfold, the outcome will significantly influence the state's political trajectory through 2028.

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