European intelligence officials have warned that Russia has significantly intensified its efforts to target opponents across the continent, including activists, defectors, and individuals supporting Ukraine. According to officials speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, Russian security services have become more aggressive and unpredictable in selecting targets since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The allegations are supported by a series of disrupted assassination plots and investigations across Europe. Authorities in countries including France, Lithuania, Germany, and Poland have reportedly foiled or investigated attempts targeting Russian dissidents, Ukrainian officials, and individuals linked to military or political opposition. In one high-profile case, Polish authorities arrested a suspect in 2024 over an alleged plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

One of the most detailed cases involves Russian activist Vladimir Osechkin, who has lived under police protection in France since 2022 after authorities assessed a credible threat to his life. Court documents cited by investigators describe suspected Russian operatives conducting surveillance near his residence in southwestern France in 2025, allegedly preparing groundwork for a possible assassination attempt. Osechkin, who runs a rights group exposing abuses in Russian prisons, said he believes he would have been killed without French protection.

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In Lithuania, authorities say they disrupted multiple plots targeting individuals critical of Russia or supportive of Ukraine. Among those targeted were activist Valdas Bartkevičius and Bashkortostan independence advocate Ruslan Gabbasov. Investigators reportedly uncovered surveillance operations, tracking devices, and alleged assassination plans, including one involving a bomb placed in a mailbox. Lithuanian prosecutors have charged multiple suspects from several countries, some of whom are believed to have links to Russian military intelligence and organized crime networks.

Officials and analysts say Russia’s approach appears to have shifted since Western expulsions of Russian intelligence officers following the 2018 poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom. With fewer operatives stationed in Europe, intelligence agencies believe Moscow has increasingly relied on recruited intermediaries and criminal proxies to carry out surveillance, sabotage, and assassination attempts.

While Russian officials have consistently denied involvement in such operations, Western intelligence sources argue the pattern reflects a broader strategy aimed at intimidating opposition figures and destabilizing countries supporting Ukraine. Despite many plots being foiled, officials caution that the threat remains persistent. As one European intelligence source noted, even unsuccessful attempts serve to create fear and pressure targets into silence, underscoring the ongoing security risks faced by Russian dissidents and pro-Ukraine activists living in Europe.

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