India's imports from Russia have surged nearly 12-fold in just five years, leaping from $5.48 billion in 2020–21 to a staggering $63.81 billion in 2024–25, according to the latest Ministry of Commerce data. This dramatic rise has been fueled almost entirely by energy and commodity inflows, while Indian exports to Russia managed only an 84% increase over the same period, highlighting a deeply skewed trade relationship that continues to favor Moscow.

The surge is most pronounced in mineral oils, which ballooned an astonishing 27 times, alongside animal and vegetable fats rising more than eightfold and fertilizers nearly tripling. These figures reflect India’s growing dependence on Russian supplies amid global energy volatility and strategic diversification away from traditional sources. In contrast, despite Russia’s public overtures to welcome Indian goods after U.S. tariffs hit key sectors, actual market access remains elusive.

Non-tariff barriers form the core roadblock, with Russian regulators enforcing rigorous quality and certification standards that many Indian products fail to meet. A senior government official pointed out that high-value exports like handwoven carpets—major revenue earners in the U.S.—have virtually no demand in Russia. Pharmaceuticals show marginal promise, but even packaged foods and FMCG items face stringent compliance hurdles that deter entry.

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Compounding the challenge is the complete breakdown of payment infrastructure following Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT global banking network due to Western sanctions over Ukraine. With no Indian bank willing to process incoming wire transfers from Russian entities, exporters are left in limbo—unable to receive payments even when orders are confirmed. The official emphasized that without a secure bilateral settlement mechanism, trade growth will remain one-sided.

As the trade deficit swells to unprecedented levels, policymakers face mounting pressure to negotiate alternative financial channels and support quality upgrades for exporters. Until these systemic bottlenecks are resolved, India’s trade with Russia will continue to resemble a one-way pipeline—vital for energy security but frustratingly closed to reciprocal commercial opportunity.

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